Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.
Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.
I don’t know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.
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Last week’s thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Israel launches strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen
“Our message is clear - for us, no place is too far,” - Defence Minister Yoav Gallant
They are 1000000% trying to start an all-out regional war and get the US involved. Iran will be next unless there is retaliation
The US position is quite strange really. On the one hand it seems untethered from domestic political pressure, so we can assume that to the extent the US is not involved, it must mean that for purely strategic reasons they don’t actually want an escalation. On the other hand, they are applying less than zero pressure on Israel’s continuing escalation in the direction of war. It’s almost like no-one is in charge and this is just what happens when you elect someone who doesn’t know what day it is.
They are trying to clear the path for a war with Iran. If they start a war directly and immediately with Iran, Israel and the US will have to contend with Hamas/PIJ, Hezbollah, Ansarallah, the Iraqi Resistance, and Syria to some extent, in addition to Iran. These groups basically function for Iran in a similar manner to how the Iron Dome functions for Israel. Similar to how Hezbollah has been methodically attacking Iron Dome infrastructure in the North to render it inoperable, Israel and the US are undertaking a similar strategy in an attempt to render Iran’s “Iron Dome” inoperable in order to clear a path for more direct attacks on Iran without the threat of counter-attacks/retaliation from multiple fronts. Biden and Harris have both been pretty clear about the need to eliminate “all threats to Israel” in the Middle East, and that is absolutely coded language for “Iran and their allies”. Bibi explicitly said as much with those deranged maps he showed at the UN the other day.
its stuck strategically. optics are terrible if ukraine is left out to dry so it tries and fails to push europe and nato to directly intervene, israel was getting pummeled strategically and diplomatically and knew it was just a matter of time and so allowed oct 7th to happen so it could do atrocity porn to draw the us in and save itself, meanwhile the one thing the us actually wants to do is start a proxy war in the pacific but the japanese and pinoy dogs arent barking as loud as the us would like.
the sarmat and df tests i think were just messages to the us that if it really wants to get stuck in, itll have to be in the middle east again. in this way kursk and the various israeli atrocities were also signals for the us to intervene more actively, since if the situation were actually tenable for western proxies then there would tangible progress on the ground instead of hollow symbolic victories designed to be spun as positively as possible.
feels like rest of nato is just waiting for us to go in on israel so they can finally turn the tables and get out from under the americans.
@yogthos@lemmygrad.ml posted an article <2 weeks ago about the US navy preparing for the SCS theater around 2027.
I think they’re still going for it, the last thing they want is for China to reunite with Taiwan province.
The US is already struggling with the chips ban on China, they can’t let the reunification happen peacefully.
Israel is volunteering to sacrifice itself to destroy America’s enemies in the Middle East, so the US is definitely happy about it without having to sacrifice the lives of a single American soldier (which would have been far more politically untenable at home).
The same with Ukraine, actually. It doesn’t even matter if they lose, because the goal is to de-stabilize those regions for American capital to take advantage of.
Israel is far more important to the US than individual soldiers.
The US would vaporize a million American kids if they thought nobody would notice. “Israel” is more important than any domestic price the US could pay.
Not only that, but losing Israel would be a nightmare for the US.
They’ll never get the region again. This is their best chance to save their project
The US is already losing the region, that’s why they are going all out with it.
Biden chose the nuclear option when they provoked Russia into invading Ukraine, which completely and permanently changed the geopolitical dynamics of the surrounding regions. The world is already turning against the US.
There is no longer any option to ramp down, and the US has to ride it till the end. This is why I always said Biden is far more ruthless than any of his predecessors, because he has set a course that is no longer capable of being reversed.
You’re correct about all of that, the US really fucked itself over by not forcing their colony to stop the genocide.
That’s what happens when you have zealots and fail-sons/ -daughters running the show.
It is untenable for the US in the long run anyway with China threatening to replace them as the global superpower.
If the US doesn’t do anything, all these countries will lean towards China, so it really has to act now. This is why the war in Ukraine has to happen.
Let us return to Lenin’s Imperialism written more than a hundred years ago to see why this has to happen:
And before anyone thinks this spells the end of the empire - not quite. It simply means that the contradictions of capitalism will have to be resolved through warfare, and the war has only just begun. It will end with a direct confrontation with China, and it is still far too early to tell how many more lives will have to be sacrificed to preserve the US empire’s status as the sole global superpower.
Great post
I’d like to add:
WW1 and WW2 were bound to occur for that exact reason. It’s no surprise (sadly) that there will be a large scale war(s) against china and her allies in the name of preserving the US’s status as the global empire.
The US was mulling over ideas on what to do with Taiwan when the inevitable happens. Do you want to know how the US is approaching the reality that they will be displaced by China?
They talked about bombing the TSMC plant to prevent it from falling into China’s grasps. The CEO of TSMC had to talk them out of it (I don’t know if he was successful either.) They have no real strategy to prevent reunification, but they will make it as bloody and violent as possible. They will do their best to give China a bloody nose with zero regard for human life.
It leads to the end of the US, but it’s likely the US will render the earth uninhabitable on the way out.
Because Israel serves a purpose, and it is executing that purpose right now.
The current situation was brought about by the (surprisingly successful) actions of the Resistance. It seems to me that both “Israel” and their masters in Washington have been caught on the back foot and flailing wildly without a clear strategic objective beyond kill as many as possible hoping something good comes out of it.
If the entity’s job is to project power and obfuscate the US’s involvement in the region it’s been doing a piss-poor job of it. The human costs have been monstrous, and the struggle is bitter with no end in sight, we cannot sugarcoat it. But there comes a point when doomerism turns to defeatism. One of the greatest propaganda victories for the imperialists has been projecting an aura of invulnerability and all knowing competence. Let’s not repeat their lies for them
Let me give you an example to illustrate this
You have a revolver with 6 bullets. In a decade, those bullets will become obsolete - they will no longer do any damage to your enemies, and your enemies will no longer have any reasons to fear you.
Question: do you use those bullets now, even if there is a good chance you can’t kill your enemies, or do you wait until your bullets become completely useless and you no longer have any tactical advantage over your enemies?
Of course, the empire’s hands are forced into this. That’s why they are expending Israel right now, because the Ukraine war has completely changed the equation of the geopolitical balance in the region. Russia no longer has any reservations about sending Syria and Iran their latest air defense systems, which will neutralize the threat of American/NATO air superiority.
The US geopolitical strategy thus coincides with those of the Zionists’.
For the Zionists, the loss of air supremacy over the other Middle Eastern states means that their ethno-supremacist ideology will no longer be viable in the long run. They will be forced to accommodate the Palestinians, which is diametrically opposed to their ideology. So war is the only way out for the Zionists, and they are willing to sacrifice themselves for that.
America also desperately needs to throw a wrench into the Middle East to destroy the Eurasian economic ties spearheaded by China’s Belt and Road. Israel is volunteering to destroy the Middle East, which means America will not have to deal with the political troubles at home as they did during Vietnam as well as Iraq/Afghanistan.
None of this is new. America has done this to the British Empire. America has done this to the USSR. The empire thrives on chaos, and Israel/Ukraine are fulling these functions right now.
“But retaliation will lead to retaliation, we can’t fall into the trap of giving Israel a reason to retaliate.”
It’s not about Retaliation it’s about what that retaliation looks like. Flattening tel Aviv will forcefully draw the US into western asia.
The US is trying to prepare for the SCS theater that they’ve been planning for 2027. They know getting thrown into western Asia will entail using their navy and Air Force, and what they currently have isn’t enough for China in 2027.
The last thing the US wants to do is waste what they’re saving for China to save their colony.
It doesn’t matter what elected officials feel is necessary or doable with their military resources. The actual generals of the US MIC know they’re not going to be able to handle both China and western Asia.
They need to pick a struggle and cut their losses.