This pretty much nails the article.

But there are things the article doesn’t mention, so it’s even worse than that. Because the real estate market is on the brink of collapse.
And the financial institutions are not well bolstered, because they’ve been forced to lend money to the weapons industry, so the Russian state can buy weapons below cost price!
So if the real estate market collapses, the banks will collapse, and apart from the extreme economic slow down that causes, the weapons industry will simply not be able to make weapons for the Russian army!!!

It’s all a house of cards, and there are many more fractures in the Russian economy than this, but this is the most obvious AFAIK.
As things are going, there is no if, It sems to be literally only a matter of time when the Russian economy will collapse. Some are guessing that it can’t hold longer than until Mid summer. But Russia has this weird tradition, where people keep meeting for work, even if they haven’t been paid for months?! This could possibly extend it a bit further.

The Kremlin has no plan D to finance its budget deficit

This key point is worth mentioning too IMO. Russia is out of options, because every aspect of their economy is stressed beyond sustainable limits already.

For the Kremlin, it thus looks like this year is set to be difficult on the fiscal front.

This gave me a chuckle, it’s such an understatement.

I wonder what will happen when trump just wire transfers multi trillions to russia from American accounts…

Like, is that reversible or how does that work.

not only money runs out, it’s also some categories of military equipment. i mean, it’s not like russia will run out of tanks entirely, because they still have ongoing production, but most of what goes to front are increasingly old rustboxes reanimated in tank factories - because it’s faster than building new one, but that happens too.

according to perun, they’ll start running out of tanks, ifvs, apcs, things of this type somewhere in 2025 - that is, storages will be emptied and any replacements would have to be new, which means that replacements will come something like 5x slower. it’s a bit harder to say with artillery, because barrels have limited number of shots and it is known that barrels can be taken from towed guns to put them in self-propelled guns. but it’s also bad, even if it means there’s another year there

This only makes sense under the neoliberal assumptions that the financial side of the economy faithfully represents the real side. If they’re really doing the whole hullabaloo with the banks, dipping into funds, I guess they also believe that and are practicing neoliberal economics. If the real economy doesn’t suffer from lack of resources, and whatever they can’t make can be important from say China in exchange of oil and gas, they can go like this until they run out of something, people, oil or gas, or China stops buying those and/or selling other goods to them. I’m not rooting for the Russians to keep their war effort going but I think looking at the financial side alone has mislead us before. For example when we were promised they’re gonna buckle under the sanctions in short order.