If anyone has watched the last 8-12 years, they’d realize polls exist solely to suck people into a false sense of security to manipulate the vote.
Ignore the fucking polls. GO VOTE. Vote in your local elections. Vote in the primaries. Vote in national elections. Polls are completely and utterly bullshit, just ignore them and GO VOTE.
Polls are completely unreliable, especially this far out. They predicted trumps loss the first go around and we endured 4 years of that POS. They predicted red waves the last 2 election cycles and it never manifested.
Its a problem with the techniques they’re using to gather data I guess. Whether it’s the cold calling or what, I don’t know, but it clearly isn’t effective to get honest assessments anymore.
That being said it will never not blow my mind that it’s even slightly close. Last election millions of Americans sat through 4 years of trump and said yep that worked out great for me. Everyone I talked to who was in that camp had various incorrect reasons but you don’t need to be right, you just have to feel like you’re right.
I think the reality is that Biden is not and has never been a popular candidate. His age works against him. Kamala is equally unappealing and doesn’t help things either. The biggest problem right now is that Biden has come out very strongly pro Israel (which every single president has done including Trump) and he has not done enough to condemn the Israeli genocide. Millenials and Gen z are at the very least anti genocide and largely pro Palestine so that’s not helping his case, although they’re short sighted if they assume Trump would be the better answer here.
If Trump wins our democracy is over. ‘Oh you’re overreacting’. Yeah they said that to me before Trumps presidency and I was correct then as I am correct now.
We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won’t get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.
Vote like you value this country. Convince others to vote. Apathy is a vote for Trump. Choosing not to vote for Biden because you’re anti Israel is voting for Trump, who is also going to continue right along supporting Israel.
One problem is cost. It takes millions of dollars to do a truly scientific poll these days. Robocalls don’t work anymore due to cell phone penetration. The phonebook is dead, and along with it any credible listings of numbers that represent real people. Plus very low response rates and spam filters blocking much of polling calls even then. You pretty much have to go door-to-door in order to get a truly good poll, which is something few organizations can do.
As a result, most cheaply done polls use non-random samples and add a giant “fudge factor” to make it look random. It’s not clear how there models really work and there’s no way to audit them.
We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won’t get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.
This has been every election since 2012, and the discussion doesn’t happen.
And that’s one of the main reasons why Biden is the candidate AND why most people who weren’t alive the last time the US had a president to the left of Reagan don’t trust the DNC much.
I reckon the techniques they use favor older people. For example, I can see a boomer answering a cold call no problem, but I couldn’t say the same for a younger generation.
A part of the problem with the ‘get through 24’ thought line is that Trump and the circus surrounding him has morphed into something that’s functionally it’s own entity with a R painted on it for convenience. That whole branch of the political tree has become some sort of monstrosity that the few remaining normal-ish conservatives fear to cross lest they become a target just like everyone else who’s an ‘other’.
The rest of the problem with the “get through 24” message is that it will become “get through 28” the day after election day.
If it’s so dire, then fuck Biden for supporting a genocide. He’s throwing away an election before it happens. He’s unelectable now.
I think this is the scenario Newsom has been preparing for.
If it’s so dire, then fuck Biden for supporting a genocide. He’s throwing away an election before it happens. He’s unelectable now.
“He’s unelectable now”
Yes, I’m sure that not supporting Israel would have been much better for his election chances.
Like, have you paid attention to popular opinion on Israel at all these past 20 years?
Do you know what the US electorate looks like, or just what you want it to look like?
Have you paid attention to popular opinion of Israel these past 3 months? Since, you know, they started a genocide?
you’re in an echo chamber bro
I’m not at all. It’s only the young people and Muslim voters who have turned on him, but that’s enough.
One young guy I work with votes the other 12 dudes I work with don’t. Most young ladies I work with vote.
The one dude votes Dem. Most ladies I know vote Dem. In my echo chamber of life at my job nobody young is voting for Trump and nobody has turned on Biden because they weren’t with him in the first place they’re just not voting for Trump.
But that’s my echo chamber of my work place. Tiktok is an echo chamber too.
Right, he needed to turn out those young voters who don’t vote currently, and now that’s not going to happen.
Have you paid attention to popular opinion of Israel these past 3 months? Since, you know, they started a genocide?
Alright, first, this isn’t even close to the start. This is just another flare-up of the ongoing genocide that’s been apparent to anyone who pays attention to foreign affairs (ie not most Americans).
Second, US popular opinion is nowhere near turned against Israel yet. Even amongst Democrats it’s an even split.
You’re correct but this is the first time it’s gone viral on tictoc. I’m not sure you’re understanding how unelectable Biden is now among the young voters that he needed to turn out in record numbers. He will not win another election now that he’s so poisoned.
Yeah there certainly are a lot of people with strong opinions about Israel and Palestine that haven’t so much as taken the time to open the Wikipedia page about the conflict. TikTok said it’s cool to be pro Palestine so that’s good enough for quite a few people.
I’m certainly not supporting Israel’s actions currently but man how many people so quickly forgot what hamas did only a few weeks ago. It’s like it never happened.
I think you can be anti genocide and anti carpet bombing while also believing strongly that hamas doesn’t need to exist anymore and it’s members are terrorists that deserve the same treatment that Isis and Al qaeda received.
Hamas leadership isn’t in Gaza. How is attacking civilians in Gaza going to wipe out Hamas?
Don’t interpret me as saying I’m supporting what they are doing currently. I said explicitly I don’t. But after an attack like that I’d fully support military action in the area. You’re a fucking fool if you think any modern nation would ever accept that and just sit by without responding.
The problem is in what the response is. Is it a prolonged occupation going building by building? Worked out great for the US. Israel and the US should definitely set about the framework of taking out anyone claiming to be hamas leadership outside of the country. Anyone who had a hand in that attack.
Again the response isn’t indescriminate carpet bombing, but there must be a response.
Now you tell me what it should be. It’s super easy to sit in your tower and pretend like you have all the answers when we both know you’re likely full of shit.
I at least can admit what reality is here. As far as I’m concerned anything else is just people spewing bullshit when they have no idea what they’re talking about.
They really need to restructure how they do polls in general to specifically address the fact that American politics are extremely polarized and kind of a shitshow at this point. All they’d need to do is to tweak the questions asked to include the context “in the election” as well as “in the general election”.
Biden’s definitely done some decent stuff, but he’s also done a bunch of stuff that I legitimately hate, as well as sandbagged and slow-walked a bunch of really crucial stuff. At the same time: there is no fucking way I will ever vote for a GOP candidate ever again after watching them become what they are today. The Republican party is, with complete seriousness, too far gone.
Yeah, Romney & Clinton were also “winning” at this point in their respective elections. The media wants a horse race.
Polls are garbage & Democrats have been beating them by 9+ points at the voting booth since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
Biden has a $1B election warchest that hasn’t even been tapped into yet.
People are so far gone with the lesser evil now we are just expected to endorse two choices of evil. Genocide enabling is evil. If Biden is the best shot on “Saving Democracy” Then it is already over. Dem messaging has been so disconnected from what issues people are dealing with yelling at people to go vote won’t cut it.
lol…. Polls.
