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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • We can make an argument about net expenditures.

    Is the US carrying too much of the burden? If that is true AND the US wants to reduce its spending, then other nations need to increase theirs to keep the net expenditure close to before.

    Let’s hand wave discussions on waste in procurement (a big issue for the US DOD). Same as we’ll hand wave the veteran benefits portion of expenditures.

    If we don’t see that commensurate expenditure, then what becomes of the NATO security guarantee?

    We can’t be naive enough to expect all adversaries to make similar reductions in their military spending.


  • I second looking at prize lists. I read the Booker Prize longlist every year. They’re not always my favorite, but I like to consume what makes the list.

    You can also check out book lists from more respected sources than “the most popular books on Amazon”. New York Review of Books is a source. Or the NYT/WaPo book reviews.

    A selection of my favorite books

    1. Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, and Tomorrow by Gabrielle Zevin (literary fiction): Two friends build a hit video game together, exploring love, creativity, and the blurry line between life and play over decades of partnership.
    2. Gnomon by Nick Harkaway (science fiction, speculative): A dazzling labyrinth of nested narratives in a near-future surveillance state where truth, memory, and identity intertwine through a mysterious death investigation.
    3. Our Share of Night by Mariana Enríquez (horror, literary gothic): A grieving father with occult ties and his son flee an Argentine cult seeking immortality, blending family drama with cosmic horror and political dread.
    4. **Same Bed, Different Dreams by Ed Park ** (literary fiction, speculative history): A kaleidoscopic alternate history of Korea, identity, and diaspora, mixing espionage, pop culture, and myth into an ambitious, surreal tapestry.
    5. The Other Valley by Scott Alexander Howard (speculative fiction): In a valley where neighboring towns exist decades apart in time, a young clerk faces a moral dilemma that could alter her fate and those she loves.
    6. You Dreamed of Empires by Álvaro Enrigue (historical fiction, magical realism): A lush reimagining of the 1519 meeting between Hernán Cortés and Moctezuma, merging myth, power, and the surreal chaos of first contact.
    7. Piranesi by Susanna Clarke (fantasy, philosophical fiction): A man named Piranesi inhabits a vast, mysterious house filled with endless halls and statues, slowly uncovering secrets about reality and himself.
    8. The River by Peter Heller (literary thriller, adventure): Two college friends on a canoe trip through the Canadian wilderness face a deadly wildfire and a sinister encounter that tests their bond and survival.
    9. The Dog Stars by Peter Heller (post-apocalyptic fiction): After a flu pandemic, a pilot and his dog live in isolation near an airfield until a radio signal hints at other survivors — and the risk of hope.
    10. The Twisted Ones by T. Kingfisher (horror, dark fantasy): Cleaning her late grandmother’s house, a woman discovers a nightmarish manuscript and a terrifying world lurking just beyond the edge of reality.

  • Looking at just combatant deaths:

    Conflict Country / Side Years Active Total Military Deaths Duration (Days) Deaths per Day (Avg.) Approx. Troops Engaged Deaths per 1,000 Troops (Full War) Relative Intensity (U.S. in Vietnam = 1×)
    WWII – European Theater USSR (Red Army) 1941–1945 ~8,700,000 ~1,410 ≈6,170/day ~34,000,000 ~255 ≈310×
    WWII – European Theater Germany (Wehrmacht) 1941–1945 ~4,300,000 ~1,410 ≈3,050/day ~17,000,000 ~250 ≈150×
    Vietnam War North Vietnam (PAVN + VC) 1965–1975 ~600,000–800,000 ~3,650 ≈165–220/day ~3,000,000 ~230 ≈8–11×
    Vietnam War South Vietnam (ARVN) 1965–1975 ~250,000–313,000 ~3,650 ≈70–85/day ~850,000–1,000,000 ~280 ≈4×
    Vietnam War United States 1965–1973 58,220 ~2,920 ≈19.9/day ~2,700,000 ~21 1× (baseline)
    Soviet–Afghan War USSR 1979–1989 14,453 ~3,330 ≈4.3/day ~620,000 ~23 0.2×
    Soviet–Afghan War Afghan Mujahideen 1979–1989 ~75,000–90,000 ~3,330 ≈23–27/day ~250,000–300,000 ~300 ≈1–1.3×
    U.S.–Afghan War United States 2001–2021 2,461 ~7,270 ≈0.34/day ~775,000 (rotated) ~3 0.017×
    U.S.–Afghan War Afghan National Forces 2001–2021 ~66,000 ~7,270 ≈9/day ~300,000 ~220 ≈0.45×
    U.S.–Afghan War Taliban & Insurgents 2001–2021 ~52,000–60,000 ~7,270 ≈7–8/day ~200,000–250,000 ~250 ≈0.35×

    Now look at combatants and civilians:

    Conflict Country / Side Years Active Military Deaths Civilian Deaths Duration (Days) Total Deaths/Day (Avg.) Approx. Troops / Population Affected Relative Intensity (U.S. in Vietnam = 1×)
    WWII – European Theater USSR (Red Army + Civilians) 1941–1945 ~8,700,000 ~15,000,000 ~1,410 ≈16,900/day ~34M troops / 110M pop ≈850×
    WWII – European Theater Germany (Wehrmacht + Civilians) 1941–1945 ~4,300,000 ~3,800,000 ~1,410 ≈5,750/day ~17M troops / 70M pop ≈290×
    Vietnam War North Vietnam (PAVN + VC + Civilians) 1965–1975 ~600,000–800,000 ~1,000,000 ~3,650 ≈440–500/day ~3M troops / 17M pop ≈22–25×
    Vietnam War South Vietnam (ARVN + Civilians) 1965–1975 ~250,000–313,000 ~1,000,000 ~3,650 ≈340–360/day ~1M troops / 18M pop ≈17×
    Vietnam War United States 1965–1973 58,220 N/A ~2,920 ≈19.9/day ~2.7M troops 1× (baseline)
    Soviet–Afghan War USSR 1979–1989 14,453 N/A ~3,330 ≈4.3/day ~620,000 0.2×
    Soviet–Afghan War Afghan Mujahideen + Civilians 1979–1989 ~75,000–90,000 ~850,000–1,000,000 ~3,330 ≈280–330/day ~15–17M pop ≈14–17×
    U.S.–Afghan War United States 2001–2021 2,461 N/A ~7,270 ≈0.34/day ~775,000 0.017×
    U.S.–Afghan War Afghan National Forces + Civilians 2001–2021 ~66,000 ~46,000 ~7,270 ≈15/day ~35M pop ≈0.7×
    U.S.–Afghan War Taliban & Insurgents 2001–2021 ~52,000–60,000 ~7,270 ≈7–8/day ~200,000–250,000 ≈0.35×

    So now let’s look at the Vietnam war and military expenditure for each side:

    Country / Side Years Active Estimated Military Expenditure (1965–1975) Approx. 2025 USD (Inflation-Adjusted) Military Deaths Combatant Deaths per $1B (2025 USD) Notes
    United States 1965–1973 ~$141 billion (nominal) ≈$1.3 trillion (2025 USD) 58,220 ≈45 deaths per $1B Includes DoD + support spending; excludes veterans’ costs
    North Vietnam (PAVN + VC) 1965–1975 ~$4.6 billion (nominal, incl. Soviet/Chinese aid) ≈$43 billion (2025 USD) ~700,000 ≈16,000 deaths per $1B Relied heavily on foreign aid and low-cost mobilization
    Metric Result Meaning
    Expenditure ratio (U.S. ÷ N. Vietnam) ≈30× U.S. spent ~30× more than North Vietnam
    Combat deaths ratio (N. Vietnam ÷ U.S.) ≈12× North Vietnam suffered ~12× more combat deaths
    Cost-per-death ratio (U.S. ÷ N. Vietnam) ≈350× U.S. spent ~350× more dollars per soldier killed

    Interpretation:

    • North Vietnam traded manpower for resources, accepting high losses.
    • The U.S. used capital- and technology-intensive warfare.
    • Despite enormous expenditure, asymmetric strategy and morale offset the imbalance.

    Tie it all together… in total war against a near peer, casualty rates are significantly higher. 50x for the Red Army in WWII, 17x for the Wehrmacht.

    In asymmetric war, casualty rates are lower overall. And total GDP expenditure is significantly lower.

    I don’t want to ignore the human cost here. But we’re talking about specific quantifiable metrics here, not the emotional trauma




  • The United States provides security guarantees for most of the western world. That was the entire point of post-WWII reconstruction.

    The US will provide security guarantees. Participating countries will provide free market access to their citizens.

    - The Marshall Plan

    The US has been in a position to overspend (proportionally) on defense due to having the strongest economy basically since WWII. Other countries are able to invest in their own economy, innovation or infrastructure without needing to spend money on defense.

    Ignoring any Trump jingoism, look at NATO expenditures. These countries agreed to a certain level of spending based on their GDP so the US wasn’t the sole guarantor, but no one met their obligations for decades.








  • Bldck@beehaw.orgtoMemes@lemmy.mlOops the libs forgot about this part 😂
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    20 days ago

    UN Security Council Resolution 2397… signed 2017 summarizes the travel section as:

    Strengthens the ban on providing work authorizations for DPRK nationals by requiring Member States to repatriate all DRPK nationals earning income and all DPRK government safety oversight attachés monitoring DPRK workers abroad within their jurisdiction within 24 months from 22 December 2017. Member States are required to submit a midterm report after 15 months from 22 December and a final report after 27 months from 22 December to the Committee of all DPRK nationals that were repatriated based on this provision;

    So… specifically about repatriation after 24 months if they’re earning income out of DPRK. Nothing about free travel.

    Let’s look at the actual resolution text. I’ll add some emphasis

    Expresses concern that DPRK nationals continue to work in other States for the purpose of generating foreign export earnings that the DPRK uses to support its prohibited nuclear and ballistic missile programs despite the adoption of paragraph 17 of resolution 2375 (2017), decides that Member States shall repatriate to the DPRK all DPRK nationals earning income in that Member State’s jurisdiction and all DPRK government safety oversight attachés monitoring DPRK workers abroad immediately but no later than 24 months from the date of adoption of this resolution unless the Member State determines that a DPRK national is a national of that Member State or a DPRK national whose repatriation is prohibited, subject to applicable national and international law, including international refugee law and international human rights law, and the United Nations Headquarters Agreement and the Convention on the Privileges and Immunities of the United Nations, and further decides that all Member States shall provide a midterm report by 15 months from the date of adoption of this resolution of all DPRK nationals earning income in that Member State’s jurisdiction that were repatriated over the 12 month period starting from the date of adoption of this resolution, including an explanation of why less than half of such DPRK nationals were repatriated by the end of that 12 month period if applicable, and all Member States shall provide final reports by 27 months from the date of adoption of this resolution.

    So the text, and the resolution itself, is about limiting nuclear and ballistic programs. This resolution does not prohibit free movement or refugee status… only limits DPRK nationals who are generating foreign funds to send back to DPRK because the Council believes those funds were going to nuclear weapons.