cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/48006611
Russia could use the risk of a radiological incident on Ukrainian territory for information manipulation and attempts to discredit Kyiv, as Moscow intensifies nuclear threats against Western countries discussing security guarantees for Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
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Analysts note that Russian officials use statements from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service to amplify rhetoric regarding potential use of nuclear weapons. Specifically, threats are directed at the United Kingdom and France — countries leading negotiations within the so-called Coalition of the Willing concerning security guarantees for post-war Ukraine.
According to ISW, the Kremlin is attempting to:
Sow fear of escalation between nuclear powers;
Deter European countries from providing guarantees to Ukraine;
Force the US to limit support for these initiatives.
Kremlin may be preparing information operation
ISW analysts suggest that Russia may attempt to use a potential radiological incident for its own informational purposes. Experts assess that Moscow could:
Cause or allow a radiological event on Ukrainian territory;
Subsequently, blame Ukraine for using nuclear or radiological weapons.
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The report emphasizes that Russian forces regularly attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including facilities related to nuclear power. Such strikes can create a risk of radiological incidents — both intentional and accidental.
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They’re also just running out of options.
They are desperate to stay in the game long enough to force a settlement in their favor lest the average citizen realizes it was all for nothing.
Ukraine’s meat grinder is running even lower. The Ukrainian conscripts don’t want to fight but they have no choice.
Yeah cause you know im constantly reading about Russians that want to fight… Pretty sure this is a problem on both sides. Regardless, all my other points still stand.
Ukraine is also not using meat wave tactics, they’re holding a line and falling back when the costs of holding it are too high. This is pretty effective at bleeding the invading force. A defending army doesnt need as many troops as an attacking army. An attacking army typically wants a 3:1 advantage. And at the cost of over 1000 Russian troops a day and even russian telegram channels showing them forcing wounded troops back into combat this isnt looking great for them.
Most importantly, Ukraine has nearly established air superiority. Air superiority will eventually become air dominance as more and more of Russias air defence systems are destroyed. I dont think theres been a war in history where the side with air dominance lost. This is evident as Ukraine has now been able to strike deep inside Russia and attacking their supply chain and economy directly at the sources.
So without some sort of major change in momentum the rest of the war is going to look like: Ukraine sitting on a defence line bombing Russia, whittling away at their supply chain and economy, while the Russians send poorly equiped meat waves to try and claim Ukraines territory at a current rate of 1% every 3 years.
They’ll be home by christmas!.. 2272…
It’s not that simple and besides, if the war made no sense for russia they’d just settle along current lines. According to Ukraine’s propaganda, only 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers are dead or injured and somehow russia has 1,500,000 dead (not counting injury). Ukraine doesn’t even have a functioning economy, they are propped up with donations because they cannot pay the salary of government workers.
“Its not that simple” from the guy who started this conversation with one sentence and nothing to back it up.
Sorry for wasting my time, i wont bother anymore