Former President Trump holds a 6-point lead over President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 match-up, new polling shows, even as the Republican frontrunner faces mounting legal woes. A Harvard CA…
That’s why I started following it and am continuing to follow it.
When I started, these states were 1/2 Biden 1/2 Trump, then they waffled back and forth, now they’re full Trump.
Granted, Biden hasn’t REALLY started campaigning, when Trump has been doing nothing but campaign… that might change when things get serious following the nominations in July and August.
As noted previously, national polls are useless because we don’t have national elections.
BUT - If you look at polling in the states that WILL matter… states that Biden won in 2020 and HAS to win in 2024:
Arizona - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia - Trump +6 to +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Michigan - Tie to Trump +2/+3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Nevada - Trump +6 to +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico - Biden +8 - Last poll is so old as to be useless though.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Pennsylvania - Trump +2 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Wisconsin - Trump +3 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Plotted on a map, that’s a Trump win:
This is terrifying and needs to get more attention
That’s why I started following it and am continuing to follow it.
When I started, these states were 1/2 Biden 1/2 Trump, then they waffled back and forth, now they’re full Trump.
Granted, Biden hasn’t REALLY started campaigning, when Trump has been doing nothing but campaign… that might change when things get serious following the nominations in July and August.