Polling on Trump consistently underestimates his real world performance.
Going into 2016 (our best corollary for this election. D in office, Trump from outside), Trump was losing within the margin of error and he massively over performed the polling.
Biden needs to get to 55% in the polling nationally to be secure in a national election. He has to make up 12 points. That’s basically never happened for an incumbent.
With Biden as the nominee, Democrats have lost this election.
And what was Trump polling in 2020? He was a 34% approval rating. Not too far from where Biden is polling now. And yes, Biden was at 55% in November of 2020.
Trump was FLOUNDERING in the polls and any one with eyes saw Trump was going to lose that election. Running ‘as the president’ versus someone who gets to be critical and unaccountable is a very different position than being the incumbent. Probably any President in power would struggle the next election cycle after governing through a pandemic.
and 55% represents where Biden would need to be to be ‘secure’ in his victory (national polling).
50% is still a Biden victory, but he’ll be fighting for some of the swing states, maybe wins, maybe loses.
Presidential elections are nearly all statewide and therefore nearly immune to gerrymandering.
And Trump is underperforming polling.
Polling on Trump consistently underestimates his real world performance.
Going into 2016 (our best corollary for this election. D in office, Trump from outside), Trump was losing within the margin of error and he massively over performed the polling.
He’s currently leading in the polling, outside of the margin of error.
Biden needs to get to 55% in the polling nationally to be secure in a national election. He has to make up 12 points. That’s basically never happened for an incumbent.
With Biden as the nominee, Democrats have lost this election.
Your own link points out that Trump underperforms his polls.
And how is Bidens polling doing in those same states?
Its the difference in polling that matters, and what matters, is that when there is an actual election, Trump outperforms the polls.
If Biden isn’t at 55% going into the general, its Trumps V.
If the election were tomorrow, Trump would win every contested swing state.
Stop deluding yourself into thinking that Biden is going to win.
There were actual elections in several states this year, and Trump underperformed his polls.
Biden is getting 80-90% of the vote in his primaries (MN excepted) which is also what Obama got in 2012.
And I’m not deluding myself, the election could easily go either way.
But Biden does not need to poll 55% to win. He never polled that high in 2020, yet he won.
And what was Trump polling in 2020? He was a 34% approval rating. Not too far from where Biden is polling now. And yes, Biden was at 55% in November of 2020.
Trump was FLOUNDERING in the polls and any one with eyes saw Trump was going to lose that election. Running ‘as the president’ versus someone who gets to be critical and unaccountable is a very different position than being the incumbent. Probably any President in power would struggle the next election cycle after governing through a pandemic.
and 55% represents where Biden would need to be to be ‘secure’ in his victory (national polling).
50% is still a Biden victory, but he’ll be fighting for some of the swing states, maybe wins, maybe loses.
45% and Biden is fighting for his life.
40%? Biden has lost.
Biden sub 40%. Its not even a question.