CNN ā
Donald Trump continues to hold an advantage over President Joe Biden as the campaign ā and the former presidentās criminal trial ā move forward, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. And in the coming rematch, opinions about the first term of each man vying for a second four years in the White House now appear to work in Trumpās favor, with most Americans saying that, looking back, Trumpās term as president was a success, while a broad majority says Bidenās has so far been a failure.
Trumpās support in the poll among registered voters holds steady at 49% in a head-to-head matchup against Biden, the same as in CNNās last national poll on the race in January, while Bidenās stands at 43%, not significantly different from Januaryās 45%.
Looking back, 55% of all Americans now say they see Trumpās presidency as a success, while 44% see it as a failure. In a January 2021 poll taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, 55% considered his time as president a failure.
Assessing Bidenās time in office so far, 61% say his presidency thus far has been a failure, while 39% say itās been a success. Thatās narrowly worse than the 57% who called the first year of his administration a failure in January 2022, with 41% calling it a success.
Republicans now are more unified around the idea that Trumpās presidency was a success than Democrats are that Bidenās has been one. Overall, 92% of Republicans call Trumpās time in office a success, while just 73% of Democrats say Bidenās has been a success so far. Among independents, 51% say Trumpās presidency was successful, while only 37% see Bidenās as a success.
There is some overlap in views of the two most recent presidentsā achievements, with 14% of Americans saying they consider both are failures, while 8% say both are successes. About half of registered voters, 47%, consider Bidenās presidency thus far to be a failure while saying Trumpās was a success, while only 30% say Bidenās has been successful and that Trumpās was not. Public opinion of former presidents generally rises in retrospect, although no other modern president has attempted a similar return to power after an electoral loss.
Negative views of Bidenās work in office have held for much of his presidency. In the new poll, 60% disapprove of his handling of the job and 40% approve, about the same as itās been in CNN polling for more than a year. Even Bidenās strongest issue approval ratings in the poll are also in negative territory, with 45% approving of his handling of health care policy and 44% approving his handling of student loan debt. And his worst issue approval rating ā for his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza ā yields 28% approval to 71% disapproval, including an 81% disapproval mark among those younger than 35 and majority disapproval among Democrats (53%).
more at the linkā¦
Textbook statistics donāt really hold when you have a huge selection bias, as just about any poll does.
Meh. Often quite accurate, if you read the small print and caveats. Itās not 1980. Good pollsters donāt just do landline surveys, they correct for demographic factors, and are transparent about flaws and limitations.
IME the problem is usually how the media reports on said polling.
Doubt