cross-posted from: https://hexbear.net/post/285341
Military Junta in Niger has released a statement claiming that ECOWAS has completed its preparations for an Invasion of Niger with at least 2 Members of the Organization
ECOWAS’ deadline for the new Nigerien govt to peacefully step down lest they use military action has passed. "A Senior Military Commander with the ECOWAS-Standby Force has told the Wall Street Journal that it’s Forces need more time to prepare before any kind of Military Intervention in Niger, with the “Success” of the Operation being dependent on these preparations"
French Ministry of Foreign Affairs updates travel advisory to Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso (the three nations declared to defend the new Nigerien govt against military intervention) the highest level of caution
I also wonder if the West hopes to drag Russia into a two front war, given that some West African countries like Burkina Faso have expressed their support for Russia.
Russia is sending Wagner to Niger. Which prevents them from trying anything funny again, so it works for Russia anyway.
Yeah they’re there it seems. But it will be interesting to see how Russia will respond if an actual war breaks out where the West will be involved. Will they help the countries that supported them, or will they let them be? Because if Russia will not respond, it might break support among African nations who are trying to break with the Western bloc. And if Russia does respond, they will have to focus on two different battlefields.
The US will also have to focus on two battlefields at the same time and I see Russia being in a better position.
Why would Russia be in a better position? Local support?
Source?
Prigozhin offering to help Niger- https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/29/africa/prigozhin-niger-coup-wagner-intl/index.html
Niger asking for Wagner’s help - https://apnews.com/article/wagner-russia-coup-niger-military-force-e0e1108b58a9e955af465a3efe6605c0
I can’t find a credible article claiming that they’re deploying yet, but here’s a tweet from the original hexbear thread - https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1687932657123143680
I think it’s pretty likely to be true given the above, but we’ll have to wait a little longer to see
Thanks!