I get that there won’t be any security updates. So any problem found can be exploited. But how high is the chance for problems for an average user if you say, only browse some safe websites? If you have a pc you don’t really care much about, without any personal information? It feels like the danger is more theoretical than what will actually happen.
Or… are there any examples of people (not corpos) getting wrecked in the past by an eol OS?
There is a lot of crap crawling around on the internet that will infect any vulnerable machine it finds, completely automatically. There’s no human behind it trying to hack you specifically on purpose. A fair amount of it is orphaned - the original creator doesn’t have any control over it anymore. It’s just spreading on the network through anything it can infect.
If you connect a vulnerable machine to the network, it will get infected by something and end up continuing to spread this kind of crap.