cyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 5 months agoNate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.www.natesilver.netexternal-linkmessage-square77fedilinkarrow-up1120arrow-down129
arrow-up191arrow-down1external-linkNate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.www.natesilver.netcyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 5 months agomessage-square77fedilink
minus-squareObjectivityIncarnate@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up20arrow-down5·5 months agoThis is a perfectly succinct, textbook example of Outcome Bias. Betting $1 with a 1 in 3 chance to win $2 is objectively a bad idea; the odds are against you. It doesn’t stop being a bad idea if you win the $2 after 1 bet.
minus-squareRapidcreek@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up4arrow-down17·5 months agoNothing like one person being right and another being wrong in bringing the amateur philosophers out.
minus-squarebutwhyishischinabook@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up7arrow-down1·5 months agoTell me you don’t understand directionally or literal numbers without telling me…
minus-squareRapidcreek@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up1arrow-down7·5 months agoTell me you don’t know simple English without telling me…
This is a perfectly succinct, textbook example of Outcome Bias.
Betting $1 with a 1 in 3 chance to win $2 is objectively a bad idea; the odds are against you. It doesn’t stop being a bad idea if you win the $2 after 1 bet.
Nothing like one person being right and another being wrong in bringing the amateur philosophers out.
Tell me you don’t understand directionally or literal numbers without telling me…
Tell me you don’t know simple English without telling me…