000 AXNT20 KNHC 301218 TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion…UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jun 30 2024

UPDATED SPECIAL FEATURES WITH THE 1200 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY FOR HURRICANE BERYL AND THE 1200 UTC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 10.6N 53.9W at 30/1200 UTC or 360 nm ESE of Barbados, moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are currently to 27 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm in the NE semicircle and 60 nm in the SW semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is elsewhere within 300 nm in the NE and SW semicircle and within 180 nm in the SE and NW semicircles. A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands early on Monday and across the southeastern Caribbean Sea Monday night and Tuesday. Continued rapid strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands tonight and Monday. Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Invest AL94): A broad area of 1008 mb low pressure is over the Bay of Campeche with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the center of the low near 18.5N93W. Current winds are 20 to 30 kt with occasionally higher gusts, and seas of 8 to 11 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will continue to affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and 7 days.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a 1012 mb area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 07.5N32W has become better organized. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted across a broad area from 02N to 10N between 23W and 44W. Winds are currently up to 20 kt with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and a high chance of development in the next 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for the latest on both Invest 94L and 96L.

Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in the northern part of Central America. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is currently affecting portions of southern and SE Mexico and western Central America. The latest model guidance continues to suggest high precipitation amounts over Mexico and northern Central America through Tue. As the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at Belize, Quintana Roo, Guatemala and southern Mexico through this weekend. These rains could shift northwestward over the coastal areas of Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico early in the week. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from their local weather services. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall information along the Pacific coastal areas of Central America.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 12N, moving westward at 10-15 kt, coincident with Invest 96L near 07.5N32W. Refer to the Special Features section for details on nearby convection.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from Puerto Rico near 19N66W south-southwestward to Venezuela near 06N68W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with the tropical wave.

A Bay of Campeche tropical wave (Invest 94L) is along 93W, south of 23N, moving west-northwestward at around 10 kt. Refer to the Special Features section for more information.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to low pressure, Invest 96L, near 07.5N32W, to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to east of Hurricane Beryl near 11N59W. Convection along the monsoon trough and ITCZ is described in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections.

GULF OF MEXICO…

Please read the Special Features section for details on Invest 94L forecast to likely affect Mexico Mon.

A broad subtropical ridge centered in the central Atlantic extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Mexico support fresh to strong easterly winds south of 27N and west of 89W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 23N93W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge along the Gulf coast states and a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and large seas NW of the Yucatan Peninsula to the west-central Gulf with occasional gusts to gale force. Conditions appear generally conducive for further development and a tropical depression could form before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Meanwhile, distant Hurricane Beryl in the Tropical N Atlantic may approach the NW Caribbean late next week, with tropical storm conditions possible Thu over portions near the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

Please read the Special Features section for the latest details on Hurricane Beryl located east of the Windward Islands, Invest 94L in the Bay of Campeche, and Invest 96L in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

An upper level low over eastern Cuba results in a few showers affecting eastern Haiti and the Windward Passage. A broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and just NE of the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are present elsewhere in the basin, except for light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean south of 10N. Seas are 3-6 ft in the areas mentioned, except for slight seas in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 10.7N 53.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Beryl will move to 11.1N 55.7W this afternoon, 11.8N 59.0W Mon morning, 12.9N 62.5W Mon afternoon, 14.1N 66.1W Tue morning, 15.4N 70.1W Tue afternoon, and 16.3N 74.0W Wed morning. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.8N 80.9W early Thu, then to 19.1N 87.1W early Fri. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds southeast of the Yucatan will diminish later this morning. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the central Caribbean through Tue morning in advance of Beryl. A surge of fresh to strong winds may move into the tropical N Atlantic Tue night through Wed, then into the E Caribbean thereafter, associated with an area of low pressure which has the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Beryl located east of the Windward Islands and the disturbance in the eastern Atlantic.

Th Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. A couple of upper level lows north of the Bahamas are producing a few showers and thunderstorms in the NW Bahamas and nearby waters and between Bermuda and Hispaniola. A generally dry airmass, associated with Saharan dust, is found elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, north of the deep tropics. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa result in fresh to strong northerly winds north of 19N and east of 25W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, Ridging will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N, locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola at times, through the next several days. Hurricane Beryl is near 10.7N 53.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Beryl will move to 11.1N 55.7W this afternoon, 11.8N 59.0W Mon morning, 12.9N 62.5W Mon afternoon, 14.1N 66.1W Tue morning, 15.4N 70.1W Tue afternoon, and 16.3N 74.0W Wed morning. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.8N 80.9W early Thu, then to 19.1N 87.1W early Fri. A decaying cold front may drop south of 31N Tue through Wed.

$$ Lewitsky/Mahoney