You’re right, it takes time to work a crisis into your favor. My earliest realization that politics was full of shit was when people were claiming that Reagan’s election that day got the hostages free.

The biggest reason this could be comparable is that her campaign is just beginning, so it is early poll time for a Harris-Trump race, even though the idea has been tossed around previously.

The point is still valid, and there’s certainly other examples of statistical predictions and actual voting results being way off. Only one number matters, and it won’t happen if people don’t show up and vote, regardless of the barriers put in place (in America!) to prevent people from voting.