Many voters supporting the former president also rated him as more truthful than their own friends and family

  • Hazdaz@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    Biden wins but gets fewer votes than both conservative candidates combined.

    HOW? The numbers just wouldn’t work that way.

    Right now, Democrats, Independents and Republicans (very) roughly each represent 1/3 of the voters in the US. (note, I am rounding all the numbers, so the percentages won’t exactly add up to 100%)

    Roughly 1/2 of Independents usually side with Democrats. So right there, that’s 33% + 17% = 50% should go to Biden.

    For this analysis, let’s say that 1/2 of Independents would be split roughly equally between the GOP and some 3rd party. That means the GOP would get 9% of Independents and the Trump party would get the last 9%.

    DeSatan would get about 17% + 9% = 26% of all votes.

    Trump would do the same 17% + 9% = 26% of all votes.

    Even if all of the conservative Independents went to DeSatan, he still couldn’t win. 17% + 17% = 34%, while in this same scenario, Trump would get just 17% of the total vote.

    There is no way that if you split the conservative vote that either DeSatan or Trump could win without pulling some kind of crazy upset where they duped a ton of Democrats or liberal Independents to vote for them. And I just don’t see that as being possible. Not on a scale where it would flip a 3-way election like this.