People I know are sharing polymarket predictions about the presidential election, and just reading about how the predictions work sounds like the most capitalism-brained nonsense. Like, try reading this without shaking your head:
On Polymarket, you can buy and sell shares representing future event outcomes (i.e. “Will TikTok be banned in the U.S. this year?”)
Shares in event outcomes are always priced between $0.00 and $1.00 USDC, and every pair of event outcomes (i.e. each pair of “YES” + “NO” shares) is fully collateralized by $1.00 USDC.
Shares are created when opposing sides come to an agreement on odds, such that the sum of what each side is willing to pay is equal to $1.00.
The shares representing the correct, final outcome are paid out $1.00 USDC each upon market resolution.
Unlike sportsbooks, you are not betting against “the house” – the counterparty to each trade is another Polymarket user. As such:
Shares can be sold before the event outcome is known_ (i.e. to lock in profits or cut losses)
There is no “house” to ban you for winning too much.
Thing is, I’m 3 stupid 5 explaining why this stuff sounds off. Am I just doing a liberalism by speaking without investigating more? Is this as BS as it comes off as to me?
they’re not BS, but they’re not super accurate either. arguably a fairer way to conduct betting than traditional sportbooks, except that there’s an inbuilt limit on how much a bet can yield, since the lowest price possible is $0.01/share and a correct prediction yields $1. they’re a good way to reach a consensus prediction, but it’s the consensus of the kind of people who would try to make money betting on politics. i made a couple hundred off gullible chuds on predictit before brandon said no more and shut it down.