A group of scientists warned Monday of the greatly underestimated risk of a collapse of ocean currents in the Atlantic which could have catastrophic consequences for the Nordic countries as the region's leaders gathered in Iceland.
I do not believe in this theory, even though I believe IPCC underplays the pace and danger of global warming.
North Atlantic, including norther parts, are hot AF. Artic ocean is warm AF for uniced portions. While sea ice extent are not setting records even if consistently low, they are clearing up very early allowing Arctic time to get warm AF by the time of fall.
Shows an extreme record low in sea ice volume both at summer trough, and in this early fall. The theory behind AMOC collapse is that huge Arctic melting will flow down faster than Gulf stream pumps hot water up to norther parts of Atlantic. But the volume charts show that winter peak volume is also falling, and that the total summer melt is pretty normal. ie. the summer record lows don’t mean massive melting. Low fall ice gains is just less freezing.
A slower gulf stream is still taking Hot AF tropical atlantic waters up to already hot norther Atlantic waters that are getting hotter on their own from summer sunshine.
If there is an extreme volume loss in Arctic one season, to overwhelm Norther Atlantic with cold water, it’s likely gulf stream would accelerate again, and less volume loss the next year, and so rebalance. Or simply have ultra high Arctic ocean that significantly curtails the next year’s freezing rate.
I do not believe in this theory, even though I believe IPCC underplays the pace and danger of global warming.
North Atlantic, including norther parts, are hot AF. Artic ocean is warm AF for uniced portions. While sea ice extent are not setting records even if consistently low, they are clearing up very early allowing Arctic time to get warm AF by the time of fall.
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
Shows an extreme record low in sea ice volume both at summer trough, and in this early fall. The theory behind AMOC collapse is that huge Arctic melting will flow down faster than Gulf stream pumps hot water up to norther parts of Atlantic. But the volume charts show that winter peak volume is also falling, and that the total summer melt is pretty normal. ie. the summer record lows don’t mean massive melting. Low fall ice gains is just less freezing.
A slower gulf stream is still taking Hot AF tropical atlantic waters up to already hot norther Atlantic waters that are getting hotter on their own from summer sunshine.
If there is an extreme volume loss in Arctic one season, to overwhelm Norther Atlantic with cold water, it’s likely gulf stream would accelerate again, and less volume loss the next year, and so rebalance. Or simply have ultra high Arctic ocean that significantly curtails the next year’s freezing rate.