“Right now, the number of maneuvers is growing exponentially,” Hugh Lewis, a professor of astronautics at the University of Southampton in the U.K. and a leading expert on the impact of megaconstellations on orbital safety, told Space.com. “It’s been doubling every six months, and the problem with exponential trends is that they get to very large numbers very quickly.”
Data compiled by Lewis shows that, in the first half of 2021, Starlink satellites conducted 2,219 collision-avoidance maneuvers. The number grew to 3,333 in the following six-month period ending in December 2021 and then doubled to 6,873 between December 2021 and June 2022. In the second half of 2022, SpaceX had to alter the paths of its satellites 13,612 times to avoid potential collisions. In the latest report to the FCC, the company declared 25,299 collision-avoidance maneuvers over the past six months, with every satellite having been made to move an average of 6 times.
“Right now, every six months, the number of maneuvers that are being made doubles,” said Lewis. “It has gone up by a factor of 10 in just two years, and if you project that out, you’ll have 50,000 within the next six-month period, then 100,000 within the next, then 200,000, and so on.”
But a professor of astronautics is basically the same as a flat Earther, am I right?
“Right now, every six months, the number of maneuvers that are being made doubles,” said Lewis. “It has gone up by a factor of 10 in just two years, and if you project that out, you’ll have 50,000 within the next six-month period, then 100,000 within the next, then 200,000, and so on.”
The number of maneuvers increased as they increased the number of satellites in orbit, which shouldn’t be surprising to anyone. To claim that this is going to follow an exponential curve approaching infinity is ignorant at best and disinformation at the worst because they have a hard limit on how many satellites they need. The guy you’re quoting qualified that statement with “right now” right at the beginning of the quote.
In addition to this, an increased number of maneuvers has no bearing on whether these LEO satellites will cause Kessler Syndrome as you claimed in your previous comment. They’re in too low of an orbit to do that.
Except that my links quote scientists.
For example:
But a professor of astronautics is basically the same as a flat Earther, am I right?
Also, I literally included an academic paper.
The number of maneuvers increased as they increased the number of satellites in orbit, which shouldn’t be surprising to anyone. To claim that this is going to follow an exponential curve approaching infinity is ignorant at best and disinformation at the worst because they have a hard limit on how many satellites they need. The guy you’re quoting qualified that statement with “right now” right at the beginning of the quote.
In addition to this, an increased number of maneuvers has no bearing on whether these LEO satellites will cause Kessler Syndrome as you claimed in your previous comment. They’re in too low of an orbit to do that.