These kinds of questions lead almost invariably to expressive responding which is valuable information and something we should always dig in to, but it does not have a one-to-one relationship with actual voter behavior. In fact it can deviate quite far from it.
Easy example: “if Trump were convicted of a felony would it change your vote?” At some point you saw as high as 20 to 25% of a Republicans falling into some sort of reconsideration status, but obviously it did not have an impact at all when he was convicted. That response didn’t tell you what they were going to do, it told you what they think they were supposed to value and say. It more reflected on the kind of person they thought they were, which is somebody who cares about justice.
No one is going to openly say “I care about the price of groceries more than the mass murder of innocents.”
What I’m pushing back on is “it wasn’t even close”
Maybe Gaza wasn’t the deciding factor, and obviously we can’t know for sure because this is all hindsight and because polls aren’t necessarily always perfectly accurate for the reasons you said, but I don’t think it should be dismissed. It was close.
Didn’t dismiss it. But I don’t think it was a deciding factor. It boiled down to groceries and perceptions of the economy.
Edit: It was also heavily influenced by the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan. Blame whoever you want, but the Biden administration sold people on “the adults back in the room“ and then that did not go well at all. You can see his popularity reputation bottom out of the moment that happened and he never recovered
Dude for fuck’s sake stop telling me what I meant when I’m telling you what I mean. You’re arguing with me about the phrase “boils down.“ Are you being for real right now? Blame the American public for not caring more. This isn’t my fault. Go grind your axe somewhere else
These kinds of questions lead almost invariably to expressive responding which is valuable information and something we should always dig in to, but it does not have a one-to-one relationship with actual voter behavior. In fact it can deviate quite far from it.
Easy example: “if Trump were convicted of a felony would it change your vote?” At some point you saw as high as 20 to 25% of a Republicans falling into some sort of reconsideration status, but obviously it did not have an impact at all when he was convicted. That response didn’t tell you what they were going to do, it told you what they think they were supposed to value and say. It more reflected on the kind of person they thought they were, which is somebody who cares about justice.
No one is going to openly say “I care about the price of groceries more than the mass murder of innocents.”
What I’m pushing back on is “it wasn’t even close”
Maybe Gaza wasn’t the deciding factor, and obviously we can’t know for sure because this is all hindsight and because polls aren’t necessarily always perfectly accurate for the reasons you said, but I don’t think it should be dismissed. It was close.
Didn’t dismiss it. But I don’t think it was a deciding factor. It boiled down to groceries and perceptions of the economy.
Edit: It was also heavily influenced by the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan. Blame whoever you want, but the Biden administration sold people on “the adults back in the room“ and then that did not go well at all. You can see his popularity reputation bottom out of the moment that happened and he never recovered
By not recognizing that it was both you kind of are dismissing it.
I said it was not a deciding factor. Where did I fail to recognize it? Stop trying to claim I did something that I did not.
If it boiled down to groceries and perceptions of the economy, then nothing else matters. That’s definitely failing to recognize it.
It was the economy and the genocide. It was both.
Dude for fuck’s sake stop telling me what I meant when I’m telling you what I mean. You’re arguing with me about the phrase “boils down.“ Are you being for real right now? Blame the American public for not caring more. This isn’t my fault. Go grind your axe somewhere else
That’s what that phrase means!
Also, you did it again. “I said it was not a deciding factor.” This, again, is failing to recognize that the genocide was a factor.