The research firm’s top property economist likens the decline in office demand to what malls have experienced over the last six years—and sees a similar outcome.
The research firm’s top property economist likens the decline in office demand to what malls have experienced over the last six years—and sees a similar outcome.
It’s a good thought experiment, but perhaps a better one would be, “had GDP not increased over the last 40 years, what would be the impact to the lower and middle classes?” In such a scenario, I think there is a real risk that wages would not have kept up with inflation. In which case, the ability for Americans to purchase foreign imports would be materially impacted. I.e. more expensive televisions. So, on closer inspection, perhaps that is a benefit of high migration to the lower and middle classes.
Of course, this needs to be balanced with said higher house prices (among other issues). In 1980, the house price to income ratio was 4.69. It is now 7.76. This is national, so the situation is much worse in cities. As housing is typically the largest purchase anyone will make, it’s not clear to me that this trade is equitable. I would give up cheap televisions if I could purchase my house for much less.