When Donald Trump was reelected in November, many investors declared the so-called Trump Trade would spur US stocks to new highs. But markets are now spooked by fears the world's largest economy is close to recession.
Yeah but they’ve got actual reasons for it to occur right now. It may be theoretically possible that long-term Trump’s tariffs will cause US companies to return manufacturing to the US and cause manufacturing (and the greater economy) to eventually rise in activity. But even if it worked long-term (which it won’t for any reasonable definition of “working”) it would cause short-term pain.
But the unemployment rate is low, the US really doesn’t have the tooling, manpower, nor the raw resources to regress to the industrial and economic models of centuries ago. If – for instance – we’re in 2025 trying in earnest to become the best textile-manufacturing country, a recession won’t even begin to cover what’s happening at the macroeconomic level. It’ll be more a depression, collapse, or a crisis we’re not even measuring anymore…a US-specific, self-inflicted little dark age.
Realizing things like this in actuality would essentially require a successful Pol Pot maneuver, which is impossible.
I’ve been seeing articles about a recession hitting for the last 5 years. They will predict a recession till they are correct.
Yeah but they’ve got actual reasons for it to occur right now. It may be theoretically possible that long-term Trump’s tariffs will cause US companies to return manufacturing to the US and cause manufacturing (and the greater economy) to eventually rise in activity. But even if it worked long-term (which it won’t for any reasonable definition of “working”) it would cause short-term pain.
But the unemployment rate is low, the US really doesn’t have the tooling, manpower, nor the raw resources to regress to the industrial and economic models of centuries ago. If – for instance – we’re in 2025 trying in earnest to become the best textile-manufacturing country, a recession won’t even begin to cover what’s happening at the macroeconomic level. It’ll be more a depression, collapse, or a crisis we’re not even measuring anymore…a US-specific, self-inflicted little dark age.
Realizing things like this in actuality would essentially require a successful Pol Pot maneuver, which is impossible.