The new paper, published in Nature Sustainability, is the most detailed study yet of how far and how fast different regions will encounter temperature extremes as human-driven global heating rises from 1C above preindustrial levels 10 years ago, towards 1.5C this decade, to 2C, which many scientists predict could occur around mid-century unless governments make rapid cuts to emissions from oil, gas and coal.

To “make rapid cuts to emissions from oil, gas and coal” would only ensure that the 2°C threshold is breached even sooner. Burning these fuels emits not only greenhouse gases but also aerosols that have a cooling effect. These aerosols have a much shorter half-life in the atmosphere than the greenhouse gases, so if the burning stops too quickly, that cooling effect will fade quickly, and there will be sudden warming which will likely trigger tipping points. The strategy to make “rapid cuts” to the burning of fossil fuels rather than addressing the other causes of climate change is suicidal.