• 35 Posts
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Joined 3 年前
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Cake day: 2023年6月21日

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  • Sure $3M would be a nice ‘problem’.

    But I’m more concerned about poor suckers like me and maybe you.

    Your key assumption is that the asset value never goes down. And you are ignoring the impact of inflation.

    We are looking at long terms here, and when and where things happen matters.

    So, in the case of a ‘comfortable’ $800K (lol i wish). Well, if the market tanks, that could easily be 400K. Not so comfortable now? And the $50K a year you were taking out, maybe you have to halve that to make it last. Oh, and whatever you were drawing out? $50K in 10 years time, assuming 4% inflation, is only worth 2/3 of whatever you take out today. And if you start budgetting for increased health care and aged care as you grow older, well…

    Even this has a large dose of ‘assumes the status quo’ in it


  • I get and support the gist of this.

    In terms of dollar values, I worry about 2 things:

    • the official CPI figures don’t track to the actual cost of living, eg mortgages aren’t included
    • the issue of money/government debt is uncontrolled

    Maybe if it was set as the equivalent of $3M in gold as at 12 March 2026 I’d be OK…

    PS:800k might be the comfortable today, but there have been multiple times the share market etc has halved, or even lost 90% of it’s value. Unless you have 2x to 10x 800k, and have a living portion in liquid assets, you are not immune.

    As an alternate POV, if somebody had $5M in super today, would we be OK with no extra tax if the markets crashed 50% and that meant their super was only worth $2.5M now? And the $3M fatcat who only held shares in his dodgy cousin’s company that tanked, some NFTs, and cryptocurrency was now worth $100k?







  • I get so pissed off about this. Here am I doing my best, with the puny things under my control, and all those who have power and responsibility who could actually achieve something, do NOTHING.

    And when the shit hits the fan, we know what the narrative will be and the history books will write:

    • “Who could have known?”
    • “Nobody could have known!”
    • “If we knew about it, we would have done something!”
    • “We tried everything we could!”