Stylistillusional [none/use name]

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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 6th, 2021

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  • Personally, I’m getting pretty tired of people who most likely don’t live in the region criticising the parties doing the most to fight back against Israel for not doing enough because of some bad news of the day.

    You don’t know what’s going on in Iranian government circles either and you’ve just come to this interpretation based on personalities.

    What I’m saying is that there is still value in pursuing a ceasefire even if you believe there’s little chance of success.

    Even if you believe war is inevitable, the Israeli position is being attrited more and more the longer all-out war doesn’t break out. But history is always still contingent and it would be irresponsible towards all the people living under your governance to just jump in head first just because you believe it is inevitable. That’s how fascists think.



  • What’s been made clear again the last couple of days, is that it is a priority for Iran to go through the proper diplomatic channels before resorting to military means. Even if it is likely to get them nowhere (I.e. holding off on retaliation for the promise of a ceasefire).

    They want to convey that they are rational and principled when they commit to violence. They give a heads-up precisely because it won’t stop a retaliation. They don’t want an all-out war but they have to respond.

    The primary audience doesn’t even have to be Israel and the US, but also the rest of the world: Iran is better because it has justice on it side. Iran holds itself to a higher standard and acts accordingly.





  • Thinking about it a bit more and I don’t see a direct value in taking Kharkiv considering the inevitable costs of urban warfare. The only thing Russia needs to continue doing is not overextend themselves. As longs as they do that, they won’t loose the initiative. Getting caught in a grinding fight in the city might be inadvisable.

    Kharkiv oblast was not among those officially annexed by Russia so it is not as politically important as capturing the whole of Donbass. There is a political and military value in creating a buffer zone for the Belgorod region, but that goal does not necessitate the capture of Kharkiv city.

    But ofcourse you’re right that the calculation changes when there’s very little resistance.




  • The question has to be what Hezbollah going ‘all in’ would achieve. Will it stop the genocide of Palestinians? Or will it intensify if there’s an all-out war?

    At the end of the day, Israel is a nuclear state with full ideological support from the US. There is no scenario where the US stays on the sidelines if actual war breaks out. Yes, the axis of resistance could inflict massive damage to the US and Israel but the same can be said the other way around.

    Imo the only way to end the genocide without spelling disaster for the whole region, is for Israeli society to become politically untenable. For the Zionist project to collapse in on itself. Atm, that goal is best pursued through anything up to, but not including, all-out war.










  • My new cope theory is that Macron is talking about sending troops to increase Ukrainian morale.

    The Ukrainian army needs manpower but there’s a lot of internal resistance to lowering the age of conscription and Zelensky dares not openly press the issue. Companies don’t want to lose their younger workforce and people aren’t feeling good about Ukraine’s performance on the front right now. They need something to point to so they can make the population more amenable to conscription.

    They can’t achieve success on the front right now so Macron steps in and offers a (seemingly) strong commitment that they are willing to go all-in. Then the regime in Kiev can push through new waves of conscription. The French announce they are standing back and standing by now that the manpower issue has been resolved.

    I don’t know, I think the French would, out of all the European states, understand that it is not a good idea to send forces into Ukraine. I feel similar about the idea of France sending troops to how I felt before Russia invaded: I thought they wouldn’t do it because it wasn’t a smart idea. So I could definitely be wrong.


  • It is true that the European elite is loyal to the US, but more importantly they are completely dependent on the US. At the same time the Europeans are enthusiastic participants when it comes to Ukraine, moreso than the US.

    The US has always held the position that the aim of military aid is to strengthen Ukraine’s position at the eventual negotiation table. But the Europeans for a long time believed the goal to be a total retreat by the Russians.

    Because of those fantasies, the Europeans have jumped in head first. Now the mood has soured and the Europeans are starting to realised that they have wagered the stability of their entire system on the outcome of this war. Hence those comments Macron has been making.

    I hope that all this talk of sending troops to Ukraine is part of a process of Europe accepting the reality that they played themselves. Hopefully the Americans can reign their dogs in before they do anything stupid.