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  • 965 Posts
Joined 1 year ago
Cake day: June 14th, 2023


  • According to this site: https://law.justia.com/codes/new-york/2022/cpl/part-2/title-m/article-460/460-50/

    1. Notwithstanding the provisions of subdivision one, if within one hundred twenty days after the issuance of such an order the appeal has not been brought to argument in or submitted to the intermediate appellate court, the operation of such order terminates and the defendant must surrender himself to the criminal court in which the judgment was entered in order that execution of the judgment be commenced or resumed; except that this subdivision does not apply where the intermediate appellate court has (a) extended the time for argument or submission of the appeal to a date beyond the specified period of one hundred twenty days, and (b) upon application of the defendant, expressly ordered that the operation of the order continue until the date of the determination of the appeal or some other designated future date or occurrence.

    120 days after the issuance of the stay means 100 days before the end of the year. September 21, 2024 (Sat) Day 265. If he appeals, and a stay is issued between July 12 and September 21, would he not be in prison on Jan 20, 2025?

    I don’t see him having any concrete way of winning an appeal. And if his lawyers just spew nonsense, I don’t foresee an extension being granted.

  • “Judge Merchan could sentence Trump to probation, or up to four years on each criminal count with a maximum sentence of 20 years.”

    Source: https://www.npr.org/2024/05/31/1198912475/trump-trial-new-york-guilty-appeal-blanche-daniels-what-next-felony

    Now some of you will insist this is a handslap, but 7 days per count to be served consecutively keeps him in jail on Jan 20, 2025. If he does get re-elected, he’ll be sworn in behind bars.

    The judge could go easy on him for being a first-time felon. If the judge goes lenient, and gives him 7 days per count, but makes them consecutive sentences, not concurrent, that’s 7 * 34 or 238 days.

    July 11, 2024, is the 193rd day of the year, according to https://www.epochconverter.com/days/2024 There are then 173 days left in 2024.

    238 - 173 = 65.

    The 65th day of 2025 would make his exit from prison on March 6th. If he is elected president, he will take the oath behind bars.

    7 days per count vs. 4 years per count isn’t throwing the book at him. It is a lenient sentence.

    I am not a lawyer, but this site https://doccs.ny.gov/community-supervision-handbook/serving-sentence indicates

    All incarcerated individuals, except those serving Life sentences, have a conditional release date equal to … one-seventh (1/7) off their maximum sentence for determinate sentences. 1/7 is about 15%

    If Trump only has to serve 85% for Good behavior, his sentence is lessened to 202.3 days With 173 days served in 2024, that leaves him 29 more days in 2025 to serve (Jan 29). If he is elected president, he would take the oath behind bars.

    Could Trump appeal and get out? Potentially, but his legal team needs evidence of an issue with the case. Trump’s lawyers in the past have had issues with providing concrete evidence.

    From the NPR story above, at least one attorney believes he had a fair trial. I suspect more agree.

    Andrew Weissmann is an attorney and law professor at NYU, and was also a lead prosecutor in the Mueller investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election…

    “Everyone needs to understand that as much as Donald Trump has denigrated the criminal justice system, he had a fair trial. He had a jury, a judge, eminent defense counsel. And at this point, he will have a sentencing happening on July 11th. And at that point, he is entitled to appeal,” Weissmann said.

    “He can’t appeal now. He has to first get sentenced. And the sentencing is going to be quick. The actual appeal process can take many, many months.”

    " In the New York Supreme Court Appellate Division for the Second Department, oral arguments are usually calendared for a date within 3-10 months following the submission of the last brief."

    Source: https://www.avvo.com/legal-answers/how-long-does-it-take-the-second-appellate-divisio-3381182.html If they have evidence, and get a quick response, 3 months = 90 days (or about October 9, 2024) and Trump could be out then, if they can prove something was wrong, which so far, I haven’t seen anything to appeal. But I am not a lawyer.

    10 months, or about 300 days, which would put Trump out of jail by the time of his appeal.

    I think 7 days per count served consecutively is the way to go.

  • The best part of the article (if you can call it that) is that it gives you potential information

    “Regulation Z, which is part of the Truth in Lending Act,” Kelly said. “It requires that monthly statements be sent if there is interest assessed on a mortgage.”

    So if they did not send monthly statements, it throws the homeowner a potential lifeline.

    By violating Regulation Z, Kelly says, “they then open themselves up to serious legal consequences and provide consumers the leverage they need to stay in their homes.”

    This is just one strategy, but Kelly has been using this approach to help homeowners in dozens of cases. She just resolved a class action case where she was able to get the names of nearly 300 homeowners from one company and help them all.

  • But is the Internet dying? The thing it doesn’t say is if the human participation is dwindling.

    To keep it simple, I’ll work with small numbers. Imagine there are 10 humans online. Now imagine 1 bot on online. Bots are 9% (1 in 11) of this imaginary online community. A year later, those same 10 humans are still online, but there are now 10 bots online; the bots are 50% of the community. This statistic can lead you to think there is less human participation when nothing happened to the humans. The difference is the raw number of bots. This is what I believe is happening, about the same number of humans, just an increasing number of bots, scraping, posting, etc.

    X/Twitter is dying because of mismanagement.