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Cake day: June 28th, 2023

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  • 3% of the population, about 300 events per Olympics, assume 5 in the past 20 years, so that’s a conservative estimate of 1500 medals. You’d expect 45 medals to just be proportional, and significantly more than 45 would prove an advantage. 0 shows an extremely severe disadvantage.

    Actually more like 60 medals would be the baseline expectation if you’re counting winter Olympics too.

    Even if you estimate as conservatively as possible, 1% of the population and ignore winter Olympics, you have an expected medal count of 15, 0 is a massive anomaly without some sort of significant disadvantage.

    Edit: triple all those numbers to include silver and bronze, realistic estimate of 180, extremely conservative estimate of 45.