context [fae/faer, fae/faer]

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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: February 13th, 2021

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  • (5) When the Lamb opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come!” I looked, and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand. (6) Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, “Two pounds of wheat for a day’s wages, and six pounds of barley for a day’s wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!” --the revelation of st. john, ch. 6

    a literally biblical famine is when food is so expensive that you have to work all day just to afford one day’s worth of food for yourself, or one day’s worth of less nutritious food for yourself and a small family

    why-angel if food is too expensive, then why are you spending literally all of your money on it?














  • i’m reading the transcript, seems to be “but if the economy is actually great then why are americans big mad about it?” in the form of ezra klein interviewing his wife for 90 minutes, with notable insights like “actually things are pretty expensive, like healthcare and housing, so maybe people don’t like that”

    Back in September, the Economist put out this interesting model that pulled in a bunch of different bits of economic data, so things like the unemployment rate, inflation, gas prices, the S&P 500. And they used all that to predict how people would feel about the economy. And they showed that from 1980 to 2019. All these bits of data, they do predict how people feel about the economy.

    And then the pandemic hits and the model completely falls apart.

    By late 2023, the model is looking at low unemployment, it’s looking at falling inflation, it’s looking at a great stock market, and it predicts consumer sentiment. It’s going to be 98 out of 100, 98 out of 100. That is Joe Biden gets his face on a coin territory. Here, in reality, the actual consumer sentiment was 69. That is Joe Biden might lose re-election territory.

    yeah turns out extrapolating weighted multivariable economic regressions isn’t much more reliable than haruspicy

    but it’s funny, throughout the interview ezra klein keeps referring to “my theory”

    And part of my theory of this, having been an economics reporter during that period, is we just weren’t paying much attention to prices. We were paying so much attention to unemployment. [etc] And then the pandemic hits and everything scrambles for a while. And then inflation comes. And inflation makes prices salient.

    like the whole “theory” seems to be that people are simply noticing higher prices in a way that they (meaning himself, really) weren’t before even though actually they’re better off like the data shows

    there’s some fun quotes in here, though:

    Sometimes, I think the problem with the greedflation thesis was simply the name. Greed made it sound like they were doing something evil, when what corporations do naturally is try to find the price at which they can balance market demand and the highest profits they can possibly make.

    margaret-thatcher thanks, ezra!