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Cake day: July 16th, 2023

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  • Historical patterns

    Historically, Muslim American voters have oscillated between the two major political parties. Socially conservative, most voted Republican in the 1980s and 1990s, leading some party activists to hail them as “natural” allies. In 2000, a majority backed Republican George W. Bush.

    Some polls confirm this recent voting trend.

    In October 2020, an Institute for Social Policy and Understanding poll found 30% of Muslims approved of Trump’s job performance, up from 13% in 2018.

    In November 2020, an Associated Press exit poll found that 64% supported Biden and 35% backed Trump.

    Other polls showed a more modest increase in Muslim support for Trump.

    Muslim support for Republican candidates continued into 2022. During that year’s midterm elections, 28% of Muslims voted Republican, up from 17% during the 2018 midterms, while 70% voted Democratic, down from 81%.

    Today, the Muslim voter base is firmly rooted in the Democratic Party, though a significant slice leans Republican.

    A recent Pew Research poll found that 66% of Muslim voters are Democrats or lean Democratic, while 32% are Republicans or lean Republican.

    Three previous polls conducted by Pew had all shown lower-level numbers of Republican or Republican-leaning Muslim voters, according to Besheer Mohamed, a senior Pew researcher.

    “There are certain issues where Muslims tend to align more with the Republican Party, Mohamed said, noting positive views of religion and skepticisms toward LGBTQ issues. “Then there are other issues where that’s not the case.”