copaceticMEnglish · 2 days ago🔮 This Substack Writer Made 2.5X in Two Weeks Betting on a Polish Election Upsetplus-squarenews.polymarket.comexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up13arrow-down10
arrow-up13arrow-down1external-link🔮 This Substack Writer Made 2.5X in Two Weeks Betting on a Polish Election Upsetplus-squarenews.polymarket.comcopaceticMEnglish · 2 days agomessage-square0linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 6 days agoWill Jesus Christ return in an election year?plus-squareericneyman.wordpress.comexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up15arrow-down12
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copaceticMEnglish · 1 month agoForecaster reacts: METR's bombshell paper about AI accelerationplus-squarepeterwildeford.substack.comexternal-linkmessage-square1linkfedilinkarrow-up13arrow-down11
arrow-up12arrow-down1external-linkForecaster reacts: METR's bombshell paper about AI accelerationplus-squarepeterwildeford.substack.comcopaceticMEnglish · 1 month agomessage-square1linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 3 months agoThe War in Ukraine Ends This Year: Thoughts and Predictionsplus-squarethecategoricalimperative.substack.comexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up13arrow-down11
arrow-up12arrow-down1external-linkThe War in Ukraine Ends This Year: Thoughts and Predictionsplus-squarethecategoricalimperative.substack.comcopaceticMEnglish · 3 months agomessage-square0linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 3 months agoBetting on the Pope was the original prediction marketplus-squarenodumbideas.comexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up12arrow-down10
arrow-up12arrow-down1external-linkBetting on the Pope was the original prediction marketplus-squarenodumbideas.comcopaceticMEnglish · 3 months agomessage-square0linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · edit-24 months agoManifolds abandons Sweepstakes and goes pure play-money againplus-squaremanifoldmarkets.notion.siteexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up14arrow-down10
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copaceticMEnglish · 4 months agoThe State of Metaculusplus-squarewww.metaculus.comexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up12arrow-down10
arrow-up12arrow-down1external-linkThe State of Metaculusplus-squarewww.metaculus.comcopaceticMEnglish · 4 months agomessage-square0linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 4 months agoTry The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contestplus-squarewww.astralcodexten.comexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up14arrow-down10
arrow-up14arrow-down1external-linkTry The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contestplus-squarewww.astralcodexten.comcopaceticMEnglish · 4 months agomessage-square0linkfedilink
Lars Trieloff@toot.berlin · 7 months agohttps://asteriskmag.com/issues/08/the-death-and-life-of-prediction-markets-at-google viaplus-squaremessage-squaremessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up11arrow-down11
arrow-up10arrow-down1message-squarehttps://asteriskmag.com/issues/08/the-death-and-life-of-prediction-markets-at-google viaplus-squareLars Trieloff@toot.berlin · 7 months agomessage-square0linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 7 months agoCongrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispricedplus-squarewww.astralcodexten.comexternal-linkmessage-square1linkfedilinkarrow-up19arrow-down12
arrow-up17arrow-down1external-linkCongrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispricedplus-squarewww.astralcodexten.comcopaceticMEnglish · 7 months agomessage-square1linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 7 months agoThe Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Googleplus-squareasteriskmag.comexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up14arrow-down11
arrow-up13arrow-down1external-linkThe Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Googleplus-squareasteriskmag.comcopaceticMEnglish · 7 months agomessage-square0linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 7 months agoMantic Monday: Judgment Dayplus-squarewww.astralcodexten.comexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up14arrow-down10
arrow-up14arrow-down1external-linkMantic Monday: Judgment Dayplus-squarewww.astralcodexten.comcopaceticMEnglish · 7 months agomessage-square0linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 7 months agoThe Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’plus-squarewww.wsj.comexternal-linkmessage-square1linkfedilinkarrow-up19arrow-down12
arrow-up17arrow-down1external-linkThe Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’plus-squarewww.wsj.comcopaceticMEnglish · 7 months agomessage-square1linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 7 months ago5 Things on the Iowa Poll that Broke the Internetplus-squarenews.polymarket.comexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up13arrow-down15
arrow-up1-2arrow-down1external-link5 Things on the Iowa Poll that Broke the Internetplus-squarenews.polymarket.comcopaceticMEnglish · 7 months agomessage-square0linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 7 months agoSamotsvety probabilities for potential precursors of existential riskplus-squaresamotsvety.orgexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up12arrow-down11
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copaceticMEnglish · 8 months agoCan AI Compete With Human Forecasters? It looks like not yetplus-squaretellingthefuture.substack.comexternal-linkmessage-square1linkfedilinkarrow-up12arrow-down10
arrow-up12arrow-down1external-linkCan AI Compete With Human Forecasters? It looks like not yetplus-squaretellingthefuture.substack.comcopaceticMEnglish · 8 months agomessage-square1linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 8 months ago2024 Electoral Consequencesplus-squarewww.metaculus.comexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up12arrow-down12
arrow-up10arrow-down1external-link2024 Electoral Consequencesplus-squarewww.metaculus.comcopaceticMEnglish · 8 months agomessage-square0linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 8 months agoMantic Monday 9/16/24plus-squarewww.astralcodexten.comexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up14arrow-down10
arrow-up14arrow-down1external-linkMantic Monday 9/16/24plus-squarewww.astralcodexten.comcopaceticMEnglish · 8 months agomessage-square0linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 9 months agoCoalition for Political Forecasting submitted 80 pages to CFTC arguing for event contractsplus-squarecomments.cftc.govexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up11arrow-down10
arrow-up11arrow-down1external-linkCoalition for Political Forecasting submitted 80 pages to CFTC arguing for event contractsplus-squarecomments.cftc.govcopaceticMEnglish · 9 months agomessage-square0linkfedilink
copaceticMEnglish · 9 months agoThe twists of the election in Venezuelaplus-squarex.comexternal-linkmessage-square0linkfedilinkarrow-up13arrow-down11
arrow-up12arrow-down1external-linkThe twists of the election in Venezuelaplus-squarex.comcopaceticMEnglish · 9 months agomessage-square0linkfedilink
