51% chance. IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

This market is very active currently. Bets are piling up for Yes and No positions, so there seem to be strong opinions on both sides.

  • copaceticOPEnglish
    2·
    1 year ago

    The creator is the defined arbiter. In this case Scott Alexander, author of Astral Codex Ten.

    • Arthur Besse@lemmy.mlM
      1·
      1 year ago

      lol, ok, that makes sense, thanks. (and, oh… that guy 🤮)

      also i see now this is a strictly play-money prediction market, i missed that at first.