• nilloc
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    10 months ago

    Kristi Noem

    The South Dakota governor has long been considered one of the top candidates to be Trump’s pick.

    According to the latest odds, Noem has a +375 (15/4) chance of becoming Trump’s next running, with an implied probability of 21 percent.

    • quindraco@lemm.ee
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      10 months ago

      This math is some kind of war crime. 375, 15/4, and 21% are radically different numbers, and only the third one represents a probability or “chance”.

      15/4 appears to actually mean her odds are 15 to 4 to lose, as her odds of winning, about 21%, matches up with 4/19, i.e. 4 to 15 odds of winning.

      And I have no idea what the hell 375 is supposed to mean.