The Cradle: Yemen’s strategic escalation into the Mediterranean

The Yemeni “circle of fire” – its maritime reach – now encompasses the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Indian Ocean, and the Mediterranean Sea. On land, Sanaa’s focus is on impacting Israel’s geographic depth, particularly its southern regions which abut the Red Sea. In multiple speeches, Ansarallah leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi has emphasized Yemen’s staggering advances in military capabilities, both quantitatively and qualitatively. These advancements are made possible by various factors, most notably the real-world testing of their arsenal. Recent broadcasts showcased a distant suicide drone targeting a ship in the Red Sea, equipped with a camera on its nose. Additionally, there has been significant Yemeni progress in the use of winged and ballistic missiles: according to military analysts, for the first time in history, anti-ship ballistic missiles were deployed against seaborne vessels, a qualitative advancement in Ansarallah’s military bag of tricks.

[…] Since early April, various European naval commanders have thrown their hands up in full public view. Jerome Henry, commander of France’s Aquitaine-class FREMM frigate Alsace – deployed in the Red Sea for 71 straight days – said on 11 April that his ship had depleted its entire combat arsenal, and while it would head to port to replenish those munitions, would return to face an impossible mission: “We didn’t necessarily expect this level of threat. There was an uninhibited violence that was quite surprising and very significant. [The Yemenis] do not hesitate to use drones that fly at water level, to explode them on commercial ships, and to fire ballistic missiles.”

[…] Yemeni Brigadier-General Shamsan points out that the US defense system failures, and growing risks faced by the anti-Yemen naval coalitions, have “forced it and its allies to withdraw more than 18 ships from the theater of operations, as the number of American ships that left reached 10, while eight ships belonging to European tools left.”

Shamsan says the rapid development of Sanaa’s military capabilities during the ongoing war has positioned Yemen as a pivotal player not only regionally but globally, owing to its strategic position overseeing one of the world’s most crucial maritime passages. As Ansarallah’s phase four operations commence in the Mediterranean Sea, Shamsan declares that Yemen has now effectively implemented a maritime blockade and economic stranglehold on Israel, which heavily relies on sea routes for the vast majority of its imports. This blockade, in turn, represents a significant leverage point against both Tel Aviv and its western allies, which have failed to protect their interests in the Red Sea or counteract Sanaa’s embargo on ships entering the ports of the occupation state.

Far from being a mere political and military backwater, Yemen has demonstrated far-reaching military capabilities and impressive strategic planning that has confounded the world’s greatest naval powers. Sanaa’s formidable maneuvers in West Asian maritime zones have catapulted it to the forefront of the region’s Axis of Resistance as the member most capable of influencing global maritime security and regional stability. As the US and its allies rally around their newly constructed “aid pier” on Gaza’s Mediterranean coastline to, as many suspect, consolidate the area as a future site for US military operations and protect Israel’s oil and gas platforms, Yemen is emerging as a frontline adversary in that far-flung theater.

Western navies are complete paper tigers.