Okay attitudes towards the hostages can be unrealistic, but I think you’re missing a few key points.
First of all, the hostages aren’t meant to prevent Israel from completing its genocide. That’s just not the reality on the ground. They’re meant to pull the negotiations in Hamas’s favor. What I meant by “to prevent Israel from turning Gaza into beachfront property” was “so the eventual ceasefire agreement doesn’t have Gaza becoming beachfront property as part of it”. Again, “as part of the ceasefire agreement”. The only thing the hostages are doing now is losing Netanyahu face at home; I’m 100% aware that they’re not holding back the IDF (Hannibal directive anyone?). That said, they have been a central part of negotiation between Hamas and Israel. They’re not the end all be all of genocide enders, but they’re very much valuable because the Israeli government can’t sacrifice Israeli civilians’ lives for a war half the population agrees doesn’t have a clearly defined goal. Or, well, they can, but the protests a few days ago show why that’s a bad idea.
Hamas already released 150 hostages once just to acquire a four-day ceasefire.
Correction: So technically it was a week but that aside, the idea was for a pause that would become “something more enduring” in Biden’s words. It didn’t work and that’s why Hamas is now not accepting anything less than a permanent ceasefire. I doubt they went into the deal expecting that it’d end in a week with no progress.
Do you think Israeli resolve to finish up their genocide is less than the post-9/11 paranoia and rage in the US?
In a way, yes. Again, remember the protests from a few days ago. The Israeli public is pissed that the hostages aren’t coming back home. This is half the reason they’re opposing the war over there. Meanwhile the genocide, while definitely having their blessing, is a more top-down affair. Could be me misreading the situation, but it seems to me like Israelis are more invested in the hostages’ safe return than in this particular genocide. At least enough of them are that people are calling on Netanyahu to accept the ceasefire deal.
The hostages alone won’t save Gaza, but their existence or lack thereof will and has had a large effect on negotiations, and it’s natural to think it will have more when Israel is more serious about trying to end the fighting (which will happen eventually; they can’t go on like this forever (hopefully)).
They’re not the end all be all of genocide enders, but they’re very much valuable because the Israeli government can’t sacrifice Israeli civilians’ lives for a war half the population agrees doesn’t have a clearly defined goal. Or, well, they can, but the protests a few days ago show why that’s a bad idea.
The protests are out of frustration with the government not doing more to return the hostages - but negotiation isn’t the only way to return the hostages. Force is also an option - and judging both by Israel’s previous actions and the invasion of Rafah, seems to be the Israeli government’s chosen route. And, purely strategically, it would be hard to say it’s the wrong decision.
Correction: So technically it was a week but that aside, the idea was for a pause that would become “something more enduring” in Biden’s words. It didn’t work and that’s why Hamas is now not accepting anything less than a permanent ceasefire. I doubt they went into the deal expecting that it’d end in a week with no progress.
The idea that the pause would become more enduring was wishful thinking after it was agreed to, and by Biden, not the parties involved, who needed to seem like he was trying.
and it’s natural to think it will have more when Israel is more serious about trying to end the fighting (which will happen eventually; they can’t go on like this forever (hopefully)).
That’s the thing - they don’t need to go on forever. Gaza is almost entirely occupied now. Once Rafah is under Israeli control, where more in Gaza can offer serious resistance? Fuck, man, they’re already building massive camps to ‘move’ the population to. Where is Hamas going to operate, to keep these hostages when that happens? And if Israel kills half of the hostages in the process of rescuing them, do you think that will lose Netanyahu any supporters who aren’t already against him? On the contrary, they’ll spin it as “Look at what the terrorists made us do!”, and if the Israeli left doesn’t swallow it, the centre almot certainly will.
They’re not nearly valuable enough to call for a permanant ceasefire. Honestly, I’d say I’m surprised that a 40 day ceasefire is on the table for them - not now, with so little left to occupy - except that I don’t believe the Israeli offer is in good faith. Their value was never extremely high - half of it was spent earlier - and their value is reduced with every Hamas-controlled location that is overrun. Realistically, they’re not worth a permanant ceasefire to Israel, protests or not.
So you’re making good points generally, but the protests I’m referring to clearly demanded a ceasefire so the hostages can return. They explicitly said that they wanted Netanyahu to make a ceasefire agreement and return the hostages.
Israeli society, already working on some 30+ (or 70+ depending on how you count it) years of dehumanization of Palestinians, has been rocked into a frenzy by the fear created by October 7, and by the abhorrent self-censorship of their own media on the subject of the attacks on Gaza. A large proportion of them would still be upset if it was a ‘permanent’ ceasefire, and very few would be upset if their relatives were retrieved by force rather than by negotiation. Most of them are desperate for their families back, and to feel safe from the prospect being held captive. As I said - there are more ways than negotiation to achieve this.
Thank you for being willing to discuss this. Oftentimes I’m frustrated by running up a brick wall of principles. It’s not that they’re bad principles, but I’m generally interested in… well, as Bismarck described politics, “the art of the possible, the attainable, the second-best”.
Israeli society, already working on some 30+ (or 70+ depending on how you count it) years of dehumanization of Palestinians,
Yeah make that a hundred.
A large proportion of them would still be upset if it was a ‘permanent’ ceasefire,
The protesters are actually calling for a ceasefire and have been for a while so at least it’s not as one-sided as you seem to think. No idea about the ratios though, so feel free to drop them if you’ve seen them.
As I said - there are more ways than negotiation to achieve this.
Yes, but none will actually work. How many hostages has Israel retrieved outside of negotiations? From a purely strategic point of view force is not working if your goal is to retrieve the hostages (which we know it’s not). Israelis aren’t upset because the IDF is attempting to retrieve the hostages using force; they’re upset because force can’t work without sacrificing a significant fraction of those hostages as both we and the Israeli public have learned in the past few months.
Okay attitudes towards the hostages can be unrealistic, but I think you’re missing a few key points.
First of all, the hostages aren’t meant to prevent Israel from completing its genocide. That’s just not the reality on the ground. They’re meant to pull the negotiations in Hamas’s favor. What I meant by “to prevent Israel from turning Gaza into beachfront property” was “so the eventual ceasefire agreement doesn’t have Gaza becoming beachfront property as part of it”. Again, “as part of the ceasefire agreement”. The only thing the hostages are doing now is losing Netanyahu face at home; I’m 100% aware that they’re not holding back the IDF (Hannibal directive anyone?). That said, they have been a central part of negotiation between Hamas and Israel. They’re not the end all be all of genocide enders, but they’re very much valuable because the Israeli government can’t sacrifice Israeli civilians’ lives for a war half the population agrees doesn’t have a clearly defined goal. Or, well, they can, but the protests a few days ago show why that’s a bad idea.
Correction: So technically it was a week but that aside, the idea was for a pause that would become “something more enduring” in Biden’s words. It didn’t work and that’s why Hamas is now not accepting anything less than a permanent ceasefire. I doubt they went into the deal expecting that it’d end in a week with no progress.
In a way, yes. Again, remember the protests from a few days ago. The Israeli public is pissed that the hostages aren’t coming back home. This is half the reason they’re opposing the war over there. Meanwhile the genocide, while definitely having their blessing, is a more top-down affair. Could be me misreading the situation, but it seems to me like Israelis are more invested in the hostages’ safe return than in this particular genocide. At least enough of them are that people are calling on Netanyahu to accept the ceasefire deal.
The hostages alone won’t save Gaza, but their existence or lack thereof will and has had a large effect on negotiations, and it’s natural to think it will have more when Israel is more serious about trying to end the fighting (which will happen eventually; they can’t go on like this forever (hopefully)).
The protests are out of frustration with the government not doing more to return the hostages - but negotiation isn’t the only way to return the hostages. Force is also an option - and judging both by Israel’s previous actions and the invasion of Rafah, seems to be the Israeli government’s chosen route. And, purely strategically, it would be hard to say it’s the wrong decision.
The idea that the pause would become more enduring was wishful thinking after it was agreed to, and by Biden, not the parties involved, who needed to seem like he was trying.
That’s the thing - they don’t need to go on forever. Gaza is almost entirely occupied now. Once Rafah is under Israeli control, where more in Gaza can offer serious resistance? Fuck, man, they’re already building massive camps to ‘move’ the population to. Where is Hamas going to operate, to keep these hostages when that happens? And if Israel kills half of the hostages in the process of rescuing them, do you think that will lose Netanyahu any supporters who aren’t already against him? On the contrary, they’ll spin it as “Look at what the terrorists made us do!”, and if the Israeli left doesn’t swallow it, the centre almot certainly will.
They’re not nearly valuable enough to call for a permanant ceasefire. Honestly, I’d say I’m surprised that a 40 day ceasefire is on the table for them - not now, with so little left to occupy - except that I don’t believe the Israeli offer is in good faith. Their value was never extremely high - half of it was spent earlier - and their value is reduced with every Hamas-controlled location that is overrun. Realistically, they’re not worth a permanant ceasefire to Israel, protests or not.
So you’re making good points generally, but the protests I’m referring to clearly demanded a ceasefire so the hostages can return. They explicitly said that they wanted Netanyahu to make a ceasefire agreement and return the hostages.
Israeli society, already working on some 30+ (or 70+ depending on how you count it) years of dehumanization of Palestinians, has been rocked into a frenzy by the fear created by October 7, and by the abhorrent self-censorship of their own media on the subject of the attacks on Gaza. A large proportion of them would still be upset if it was a ‘permanent’ ceasefire, and very few would be upset if their relatives were retrieved by force rather than by negotiation. Most of them are desperate for their families back, and to feel safe from the prospect being held captive. As I said - there are more ways than negotiation to achieve this.
Thank you for being willing to discuss this. Oftentimes I’m frustrated by running up a brick wall of principles. It’s not that they’re bad principles, but I’m generally interested in… well, as Bismarck described politics, “the art of the possible, the attainable, the second-best”.
Yeah make that a hundred.
The protesters are actually calling for a ceasefire and have been for a while so at least it’s not as one-sided as you seem to think. No idea about the ratios though, so feel free to drop them if you’ve seen them.
Yes, but none will actually work. How many hostages has Israel retrieved outside of negotiations? From a purely strategic point of view force is not working if your goal is to retrieve the hostages (which we know it’s not). Israelis aren’t upset because the IDF is attempting to retrieve the hostages using force; they’re upset because force can’t work without sacrificing a significant fraction of those hostages as both we and the Israeli public have learned in the past few months.