I think the author is very optimistic about Russia’s willingness to return to the negotiating table now. Once they’ve secured sufficient “buffer zone” between Donbass and Russia it might change but I can’t imagine giving up the initiative now.

Literally the only sober article I’ve seen from a western journalist. Doubtful Ukraine will actually do it though. The next few months are going to be very critical though so maybe something will change.

Putin does not trust the West anymore and Russia is in the driver’s seat. They could gain much more territory of the Russian-speaking oblasts and if the Ukraine army collapses; basically ineffective to defense, Russia is going to take Odessa. This will also embarrass the US military industrial complex in their 10-year agreements and 10 year contracts to build artillery shells basically for nothing if Russia can pull a major victory this summer.