Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
Archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20240712121307/https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden-trump-poll
It’s worth noting that NPR’s national newscast mentioned that, with 3rd party candidates, and since Biden is trailing significantly in key swing states, he would need to do be doing better in a national poll if he were to be doing well. Right now the odds are still in Trump’s favor.
Yep
I know it’s already ongoing, but has the official race started yet?
I’m a little confused. Can you elaborate? What do you mean by the official race?
That said, Biden and Trump have not been officially nominated by their parties. The GOP convention is the week of July 15th, and the Dems are the next month. That’s when the state delegates lock in the candidates.
Well yes I guess those dates were what I was thinking of, thanks!
I mean I guess they’ll start spending their war chests from that time onwards, right (and Biden has a bigger one, if I got that right)? So today it’s like before the storm sort of?
They’re spending campaign funds already. They’re allowed to do that since they are in primary mode.
And that said, since campaign finance rules are pretty loose in the US these days, technically private donors and political action committees can basically blow tons of money on ads that are in services of a campaign, but technically not coming directly from a campaign. And people have doing that for quite a while now as well.