Based on recent projections, the US federal debt is expected to grow to historic highs over the next decade. This column uses the FRB-US model to simulate fiscal scenarios for the US. Across all fiscal consolidations considered, the debt/GDP ratio and interest bill increase at least until 2026-2027. Growth is not a way out: without corrective measures, nothing short of unrealistic growth of 4% or more would work, and recession risks remain. A decade-long plan ending in 2034 could work but would require (bipartisan consensus on) ambitious fiscal reforms over the period. Still, waiting is costly and risky.