Because while he has his rabid supporters, he also has a ton of people who hate him. He lost last time and even more dirt has been dug up about him since then, so if Trump is the nominee that would be one of the best things for the Democrats. 62% of likely GOP voters is only about 20% of the US voting population. If most of the rest of the people vote against him, he would have a hard time winning.
The only thing better would be if Trump ran 3rd party and split the right-wing vote.
That would potentially cause lasting division between conservatives which would greatly weaken their power. Historically one of the things that have given Republicans the power that they have had over the years is their unity. While Democrats are like wrangling cats who all have different agendas and can’t be corralled to do anything together, Republicans almost always fall in-line and support whoever their leader is. So even in districts where they have a smaller population, they have typically been able to give Democrats a run for their money. Splitting that right-wing vote between the Republican party and some Trump part would be the best thing to happen to the US in decades.
It would be perfect, but if Trump becomes the nominee it won’t happen, and the other gremlins don’t have enough support to pull significant numbers away. The people who claim to prefer DeSantis just want a Trumpian who’s winning; choosing between the wounded but still wildly popular real thing versus the flagging knockoff isn’t much of a real choice to them.
I agree. Only Trump has the pull to spin off to a 3rd party. That’s where it gets dicey. For short term gains it will be better if he just gets the GOP nomination, but what would be better long-term for the country is if Trump lost the GOP nomination and then decided to start his own party. I think there would be a certain percentage of MAGAts which would turn their backs on the Republican party indefinitely if that happened. That would be fantastic for the country as a whole if it could happen.
The other path is the republicans work to get him barred from running via jan 6. That seems plausibly like something they would do to cut him out. How hardcore trumpers take that, idk.
The base that has been getting little hits of dopamine over the years from dogwhistles and winks has been given pure heroin in Trump and they are NOT going back. The Republican establishment knows this, which is why all but a few in very safe positions (Romney’s hold on Utah comes to mind) are either bending the knee or trying to outdo Trump.
Not to mention their main criticism of him was that he lost the most recent election, and his endorsements are poison. He delivered their SCOTUS picks, their federal judges, killed Roe, helped galvanize a wave of anti-queer legislation, got them that tax handjob for the rich: he’s their attack dog and they love him, they just hate cleaning up after him.
They know that if Trump has a shot at the presidency and they kill that then they’ve lost that base, that funding juggernaut, that good will from fascist media. They’re stuck in a cage of their own making but if he wins they’re on cloud 9 again.
Alternatively it could be disastrous. Say Trump runs 3rd party and splits the vote with DeSantis, so Biden wins but gets fewer votes than both conservative candidates combined. Who’s to say southern states wouldn’t just reject the results and treat it as an election between Trump and DeSantis?
Biden wins but gets fewer votes than both conservative candidates combined.
HOW? The numbers just wouldn’t work that way.
Right now, Democrats, Independents and Republicans (very) roughly each represent 1/3 of the voters in the US. (note, I am rounding all the numbers, so the percentages won’t exactly add up to 100%)
Roughly 1/2 of Independents usually side with Democrats. So right there, that’s 33% + 17% = 50% should go to Biden.
For this analysis, let’s say that 1/2 of Independents would be split roughly equally between the GOP and some 3rd party. That means the GOP would get 9% of Independents and the Trump party would get the last 9%.
DeSatan would get about 17% + 9% = 26% of all votes.
Trump would do the same 17% + 9% = 26% of all votes.
Even if all of the conservative Independents went to DeSatan, he still couldn’t win. 17% + 17% = 34%, while in this same scenario, Trump would get just 17% of the total vote.
There is no way that if you split the conservative vote that either DeSatan or Trump could win without pulling some kind of crazy upset where they duped a ton of Democrats or liberal Independents to vote for them. And I just don’t see that as being possible. Not on a scale where it would flip a 3-way election like this.
That’s a GOOD thing.
Because while he has his rabid supporters, he also has a ton of people who hate him. He lost last time and even more dirt has been dug up about him since then, so if Trump is the nominee that would be one of the best things for the Democrats. 62% of likely GOP voters is only about 20% of the US voting population. If most of the rest of the people vote against him, he would have a hard time winning.
The only thing better would be if Trump ran 3rd party and split the right-wing vote.
That would potentially cause lasting division between conservatives which would greatly weaken their power. Historically one of the things that have given Republicans the power that they have had over the years is their unity. While Democrats are like wrangling cats who all have different agendas and can’t be corralled to do anything together, Republicans almost always fall in-line and support whoever their leader is. So even in districts where they have a smaller population, they have typically been able to give Democrats a run for their money. Splitting that right-wing vote between the Republican party and some Trump part would be the best thing to happen to the US in decades.
It would be perfect, but if Trump becomes the nominee it won’t happen, and the other gremlins don’t have enough support to pull significant numbers away. The people who claim to prefer DeSantis just want a Trumpian who’s winning; choosing between the wounded but still wildly popular real thing versus the flagging knockoff isn’t much of a real choice to them.
I agree. Only Trump has the pull to spin off to a 3rd party. That’s where it gets dicey. For short term gains it will be better if he just gets the GOP nomination, but what would be better long-term for the country is if Trump lost the GOP nomination and then decided to start his own party. I think there would be a certain percentage of MAGAts which would turn their backs on the Republican party indefinitely if that happened. That would be fantastic for the country as a whole if it could happen.
It really would be ideal.
The other path is the republicans work to get him barred from running via jan 6. That seems plausibly like something they would do to cut him out. How hardcore trumpers take that, idk.
The base that has been getting little hits of dopamine over the years from dogwhistles and winks has been given pure heroin in Trump and they are NOT going back. The Republican establishment knows this, which is why all but a few in very safe positions (Romney’s hold on Utah comes to mind) are either bending the knee or trying to outdo Trump.
Not to mention their main criticism of him was that he lost the most recent election, and his endorsements are poison. He delivered their SCOTUS picks, their federal judges, killed Roe, helped galvanize a wave of anti-queer legislation, got them that tax handjob for the rich: he’s their attack dog and they love him, they just hate cleaning up after him.
They know that if Trump has a shot at the presidency and they kill that then they’ve lost that base, that funding juggernaut, that good will from fascist media. They’re stuck in a cage of their own making but if he wins they’re on cloud 9 again.
Alternatively it could be disastrous. Say Trump runs 3rd party and splits the vote with DeSantis, so Biden wins but gets fewer votes than both conservative candidates combined. Who’s to say southern states wouldn’t just reject the results and treat it as an election between Trump and DeSantis?
HOW? The numbers just wouldn’t work that way.
Right now, Democrats, Independents and Republicans (very) roughly each represent 1/3 of the voters in the US. (note, I am rounding all the numbers, so the percentages won’t exactly add up to 100%)
Roughly 1/2 of Independents usually side with Democrats. So right there, that’s 33% + 17% = 50% should go to Biden.
For this analysis, let’s say that 1/2 of Independents would be split roughly equally between the GOP and some 3rd party. That means the GOP would get 9% of Independents and the Trump party would get the last 9%.
DeSatan would get about 17% + 9% = 26% of all votes.
Trump would do the same 17% + 9% = 26% of all votes.
Even if all of the conservative Independents went to DeSatan, he still couldn’t win. 17% + 17% = 34%, while in this same scenario, Trump would get just 17% of the total vote.
There is no way that if you split the conservative vote that either DeSatan or Trump could win without pulling some kind of crazy upset where they duped a ton of Democrats or liberal Independents to vote for them. And I just don’t see that as being possible. Not on a scale where it would flip a 3-way election like this.