Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.
Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.
I don’t know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week’s thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I’d frame it as more realistic than incredibly pessimistic. Hezbollah are outgunned in a direct confrontation with Israel, there is no denying that. That doesn’t mean that Hezbollah cannot win of course, it just means that the reality is that warfare against Israel will be asymmetric and have a high casualty rate as Hezbollah do not have the capability to go toe to toe with the Israeli Air Force.
So far Hezbollah have fired unguided Fadi rockets of the 1, 2 and 3 series against Israel. These rockets are not comparable to the advanced guided missiles Iran and Yemen possess. They are unguided, cannot change course mid-flight, and rely on a large number being fired to land impactful hits, as many will be intercepted to miss the target. This is why Rybar calls it a “shelling zone”, comparable to long range rocket artillery. Hezbollah of course knows this of course, it’s why they fire hundreds of rockets at a time.
The attacks by Hezbollah so far have been carried out well from a tactical perspective as expected, for months Hezbollah have been targeting Israeli signals intelligence and Iron Dome launchers. This is what has allowed their recent attacks on military bases and infrastructure to get through. Also, Hezbollah is firing hundreds of rockets at a time, not thousands, which is a sign that they a settling in for a long fight and not panicing after Israeli strikes. Israel would want them to panic so that they can “justify” further aggression. Hezbollah are easily the most well equipped force to fight Israel in the region, as shown by 2006 and the defeat they inflicted on Israel. But direct confrontation will be extremely bloody, especially for Lebanese civilians.
Says who? Hezbollah is way bigger and better equipped than they were in 2006 when they beat isisrael. isisrael has only stagnated since then till 2023 and now have been engaged in a quagmire in Gaza for almost a year. Like yeah isisrael has more planes but Hezbollah have more missiles same as it was in 2006 but the “more missiles” has grown substantially while the “more planes” hasn’t really changed much. isisrael has more tanks but its become quite clear from the fighting in Gaza that their tanks aren’t very effective.