I want to open by saying this is the most aspirational presentation Iâve ever seen. Some of this stuff looks insanely futuristic, so in a few short years weâll be either completely blown away or (more likely) Tesla will further badly damage their reputation for delivering on their promises.
Presentation opens with a very long disclaimer about âforward-looking statementsâ which is pretty damning. Never seen that before.
54:20 - Elon comes out of a building and we get the first glimpse at the robotaxi/cybercab. It has a very Cybertruck aesthetic but much less polarizing. Satin gray exterior looks like it could be stainless steel but I donât think it is. Large lights span the entire width front and rear, much like cyber truck, including the abominable rear light that looks like a brake light but totally isnât and definitely should be illegal. The doors open/close automatically as Elon walks up/in.
55:36 - We get a look at some crazy laser lights going on. They do not look in any way useful, more like a light show, but maybe indicative of some sort of future lighting technology?
56:44 - Elon says âI just arrived in The Robotaxi - The Cybercabâ. It doesnât seem they have decided on a name for the vehicle. Personally I think ârobotaxiâ may be a type of vehicle and âcybercabâ may refer to this specific vehicle. Notably, the license plates on the back say ârobotaxiâ in the same font as the cyber truck.
Elon says there are 20 more, for a total of 50 vehicles demonstrating full autonomy that day on the closed circuit at Warner Bros.
57:25 - Elon mentions there are no steering wheel or pedals. There are also no mirrors of any kind.
58:17 - a video comes on screen that says âtodayâs transportation sucks, costs too much, not safe, not sustainableâ. Of note, in the first few seconds of this video is a train, reminding everyone that Elon is notoriously and vehemently anti-public transit.
58:45 - âyou could fly to, ya know, another city faster than you can get across LAâ. This is the first sign of something that later becomes readily apparent, and that is that Elon is just making shit up on stage and hasnât prepared any statements for this event.
59 - Elon talks about how much money autonomous cars will save you, since you wonât be paying for a car that is sitting around doing nothing for 95% of the day.
He says you can get time back (presumably working for Elon) because you donât have to drive.
1:02:00 - Explains the average cost to operate a bus (not the ticket price) is about $1/mile. Elon âWe think probably, over time, the operating costs is probably going to be ~$0.20/mi. And price, including taxes and everything else probably ends up being $0.30-0.40/miâ
A whole lot of "probablys and other qualifiers thereâŠThis is the second time where itâs clear Elon has prepared nothing.
âYou can buy one. We expect the cost to be below $30kâ. Presumably this means $29,990. Notably already more expensive than the $25k they touted previously. Though it canât be proven this was the âModel 2â Tesla spoke about previously, I think itâs pretty clear that it is.
Elon talks about how you could start a business managing a fleet of robotaxis. This is really strange, in my opinion, as I donât understand why Tesla wouldnât just operate the fleets themselves and keep all of the money.
1:03:50 - Unsupervised FSD in TX and CA next year for M3 and MY. Honestly, at this point, Elon has been saying ânext yearâ for 9 years, and if youâre still falling for it, youâre a special kind of sucker.
Cybercab production in âprobably, well I can be a little optimistic with timeframes, in 2026. Before 2027, let me put it that way.â Again here it sounds like heâs just making this shit up on stage. This shouldnât be something you have to think about on stage. Itâs something you very carefully consider and then present on stage in a definitive tone.
1:07:04 - Elon says the âAI 5 computerâ (presumably this is new nomenclature and this will be the successor to âHW4â) will be âopen specâ.
1:08:45 - Elon announces theyâre doing âinductive chargingâ and the robotaxi has no plug. Unclear exactly which models will be equipped with this.
1:09:30 - Talks about the elimination of parking lots.
1:10:00 - The Robovan appears. Elon hilariously mispronounces the name. No one laughs so he explains the joke. Can carry up to 20 people. $0.05-0.10/mi
1:12:10 - humanoid robots appear. Their walking seems impressively stable and humanoid. Some people speculate they are remote-controlled.
1:13:15 - âYou should be able to buy an autonomous robot $20-30k long termâ again here, $20-30k is an enormous gap and it sounds very much like heâs just making it up. âThe biggest product, ever, of any kindâ. Elon claims Optimus will usher in âan age of abundanceâ where âanyone will be able to have any products and services they wantâ.
My take: this is nothing short of delusional⊠What will happen is that theyâll further displace human labor and further consolidate wealth into the hands of the 1%. So, pretty much the opposite of what heâs suggesting. That is, assuming these things are ever delivered or functional enough to replace the kind of work currently done by humans.
1:15:50 - Thereâs a concert where they play Daft Punkâs âRobot Rockâ while a bunch of Optimuses dance on stage. Honestly pretty dope.
1:22:15 - They show the Optimus serving drinks. The way it interacts with people at the bar appears very human, and by that I mean this is obviously why people think theyâre remote-controlled, shaking itâs head, posing for pictures with a thumb up, waving at people, playing rock, paper, scissors and then reacting to losing. They seem to be carrying conversations. However the motions appear very fluid and humanoid, which is at least mechanically very impressive, and beyond anything Iâve seen from Boston Dynamics (though it doesnât do any cool flips or anything).
Closing thoughts: This was a very short presentation where they unveiled a whole lot of stuff, but all of it was very sparse on any details whatsoever which, on the one hand, maybe theyâre beginning to learn from their mistakes. On the other, why even bother? Just release some photos and donât waste your time.
Some have criticized the choice of 2 seats. But honestly, how many people are taking an Uber with 3+ people? It makes a lot of sense to me, especially considering this will likely be one of the most energy-efficient vehicles ever made.
This was Elonâs one big opportunity to square things up, and it was a flop. Heâs a terrible speaker. Clearly riffing (no wonder heâs hanging up his hat with Trump these days). Vague details. I mean the market has spoken today, what did the stock fall like 10%? Iâm clearly not the only one that feels this way.
Itâs time for a rethink at Tesla. The company is stuck in day-to-day delusion, and has no clear focus. Instead of the robots and the taxis and all of that, they should be fully focused on getting FSD figured out. THEN do the taxis and the Robovan and the robots. After all no FSD, no cybertaxi. This year for sure, nine years in a row. Meanwhile the product is clearly light-years away from any sort of autonony. All talk, no substance, and the market will show you that. Tesla just reached its peak this week, and my prediction is a slow decline until Tesla sorts itâs shit out, and clears house of people that clearly lack focus.
Technically, TSLA peaked in 2021 and has been already stumbling for 3 years. This does feel like a precursor to a major drop though
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Theyâve jumped the shark at this point. They made the same presentation years ago and now they have a few steel prototypes to show. No doubt the robots are remote controlled, same with the vehicle prototypes .
Itâs all an inch deep and a mile wide. I feel bad for the people who still work there, having to scramble and react to his whims while he goes to rallies with the guy who wants to eliminate the very people who want electric cars and a bearable working environment.
