I think there’s “more” interest in Linux in terms of a replacement to Windows 11 vs Windows 10. I’ve had dual boot Linux for a long time. But I used Windows 10 a lot. Windows 11, not so much. I’ve not booted it since November last year.

Now. as to whether “normal” people will upgrade. The answer is, not many. But likely more than was the case for Windows 10.

The majority of users know Windows, and feel like learning something new just to watch youtube videos is far too much. They won’t switch until it becomes far worse than it is.

I expect Linux user share (steam hardware survey) might go as far as 5% in the next few years. But that’s conservative I think.