I think this one is probably a YES, even in its’ current state the Tories cannot sweep under the carpet repeated instances of bullying or sexual misconduct. And TBH I think their majority in Wellingborough is high enough that they can probably risk a by-election and have it not be a guaranteed loss.
This one I think is a slight YES too, these petitions have mostly resulted in by-elections but there’s not been that many of them to reliably say that they always go that way. From what I can tell Bone is a relatively popular local MP, so it’s going to depend on whether or not Labour have the local resources to ensure enough signatures get onto the petition.
I reckon there would be a by-election. The threshold for triggering one with a recall petition is pretty low - 10% of the electoral register for the constituency. Even with a popular MP, there’ll always be at least 10% who’d be happy to get shot of him, especially with Labour making sure to publicise the recall petition and campaign for people to sign it.
I’ve set up a couple of prediction markets based off this:
Will Peter Bone be suspended from the House of Commons?
I think this one is probably a YES, even in its’ current state the Tories cannot sweep under the carpet repeated instances of bullying or sexual misconduct. And TBH I think their majority in Wellingborough is high enough that they can probably risk a by-election and have it not be a guaranteed loss.
Conditional on Peter Bone MP being suspended from the Commons, will there be a By-Election in Wellingborough?
This one I think is a slight YES too, these petitions have mostly resulted in by-elections but there’s not been that many of them to reliably say that they always go that way. From what I can tell Bone is a relatively popular local MP, so it’s going to depend on whether or not Labour have the local resources to ensure enough signatures get onto the petition.
I reckon there would be a by-election. The threshold for triggering one with a recall petition is pretty low - 10% of the electoral register for the constituency. Even with a popular MP, there’ll always be at least 10% who’d be happy to get shot of him, especially with Labour making sure to publicise the recall petition and campaign for people to sign it.