Image is of General Abdourahamane Tiani, leader of Niger (left) and Ibrahim Traoré, leader of Burkina Faso (right).
The Alliance of Sahel States (ASS) formed on September 16th in the wake of the coup in Niger in late July, in which Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso created a military and increasingly economic alliance in which attacking one would result in the other two joining. This was initially most relevant militarily, as ECOWAS was threatening an invasion of Niger if they did not restore civilian rule. Nonetheless, due to a mixture of a lack of real strength in ECOWAS due to Nigeria’s internal problems, and the influence of Algeria, a very strong regional military power who negotiated against a war which could further destabilise an already destabilised region, and the vague promises of future civilian rule, the external military threat seems to have mostly dissipated.
However, internal threats remain. Burkina Faso is fighting against ISIS and al-Qaeda, which commit regular massacres of civilians; the government controls only 60% of the country. In Mali, the government is fighting against similar groups as well as the Tuareg, which inhabit the more sparsely populated north of the country - the government is in the process of kicking out the UN mission to Mali, and in the process retaking rebel stronghold cities like Kidal, which is raising some eyebrows as to what exactly the UN was doing all this time; and Niger is fighting against similar Islamic groups too, and is kicking out the French for being exploitative motherfuckers. Combine this with the sanctions against Niger which are crippling the country, disease outbreaks in Burkina Faso, and just the general shitty state of the world economy, and the situation is not looking very good currently.
That all being said, economy and trade ministers from all three countries have met this past weekend in Bamako, the capital of Mali. There, they recommended that the countries: improve the free movement of people inside the ASS (don’t laugh!); construct and strengthen infrastructure like dams and roads; construct a food safety system; establish a stabilization fund and investment bank; and even create a common airline. This is all attracting foreign attention too - Russia has signed a deal to build Africa’s largest gold refinery in Mali, and China is the second largest investor into Niger after France, ploughing money into the gold and uranium industries there. And, of course, the Wagner group is in the region - though I’m unsure if they’re having a major or minor impact on events there.
The weekly update is here on the website.
Your Monday Briefing is here in the comments and here on the website.
Your Tuesday Briefing is here in the comments and here on the website.
Your Wednesday Briefing is here in the comments and here on the website.
Your Thursday Briefing is here in the comments and here on the website.
The Country of the Week is Burkina Faso! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches. Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
So with Israel forcing people to evacuate further and further south into Gaza, are we nearing the point of their invasion where they try to force people out of Gaza into Egypt? They’re forcing over a million people into what is essentially a brick wall while they drop bombs at their heels. During the ceasefire I thought maybe there’d be a return to the status quo but it seems like they’re determined to finish their genocide this time
The Middle East will reach a breaking point before a considerable number of people are forced into Egypt imo. Egypt’s government will find it intolerable and Sisi will resist it up until the point where he is desposed by one force or another, it’ll be treated as a massive escalation by the Resistance, etc. I’m not particularly sure what Israel’s plan is there other than “idk, hope everybody in southern Gaza just stops being a problem, doesn’t matter to us if they leave or all die, we think they’re lower than animals anyway.”
They’re still in the ‘incoherent fascistic genocidal rage that is internally destroying them similar to every other overtly genocidal fascist regime in history’ stage and aren’t thinking of consequences more than about 5 seconds into the future. The civilian bombings and massacres and general ethnic cleansing is, militarily, a non-factor. Nobody is being dissuaded by them (if anything it’s just generating more angry people who want to take up arms against them). Hamas’ military infrastructure is all underground and there’s been not a shred of compelling evidence that their ability to fight back has been degraded - in fact, given the events of today, it seems like they were making substantial preparations while the ceasefire was happening (setting up minefields, distributing rockets around to continue their barrages of Tel Aviv and Askelon) while people were complaining (thankfully not so much on this website) about how the ceasefire just gives Israel a chance to reload and thus the Resistance was taking an L, and in general seem prepared to fight hard for many months to come.
No wonder israel let it lapse. Not only were they losing the PR battle with happy children wistfully bidding farewell to their captors, but israel was bound to their positions on the surface by the terms of their ceasefire while Hamas could move men and materiel undetected beneath the earth.
I think they want to provoke unrest in the area, so they can present themselves to be a victim in the conflict and in the turmoil make their claim to the Sinai.
Why not finish it? No one is going to stop them. And once it’s finished and time passes people will forget.
The other option for Israel is to stop and what continue to mow to the lawn and remind everyone every 4 years that they are all genocidal freaks.
The real question is will isreal stop at Gaza? Will they turn their sights on more Jordan, Lebanon land? Israel is pretty inept but they are surrounded by countries that are basically broken already.
If it gets to the point of a million dead, I think there’s a good chance others get involved. Hopefully well before that point!
Something’s gonna break and soon. USA has been walking back its support. They sent
out to say that displacement is not something they will support.
A new front is going to open up hard any second now and israel is gonna shit itself and nobody will come to their rescue.
Probably Yemen, Houthis attacked 3 commercial vessels and a US destroyer today
And it doesnt seem israel is in a good position to strike back at Yemen