I will fully admit my knowledge of economics begins to fail when you get into the intimacies of the bonds and currencies market, I find I get mixed up with buying bonds to secure foreign currencies which weakens your market but allows sales of goods… I get a little lost, but everything I’ve read on this keeps pointing to it being the weakest thing no one is probably looking at. My first paragraph should also belie that I dont really believe the bourgeoisie is not going to allow any simple failure (that could cascade into other industries) to even occur. So something really major, a fundamental thing, is going to be what does it. And yes the chinese especially used to buy something like a third of all our debts, which has now fallen to a little less than a tenth. Japan also had a huge sell off, we (the globe) is recognizing an American economic system without any ability to guarantee anything that Americans are selling.

I do not think the AI bubble will pop on its own.

Like Tesla and so many other companies that one can point to as bubble-ish that have existed in our market ecosystem, they wont pop unless someone has a needle. And right now no one has any incentive: profit, spite, or intelligence to find a needle. I think the mechanism for this next market collapse is going to be more fundamental; in 2008 this was the bank backed mortgage market being bet on by huge firms collateralizing everything into financial instruments like CDOs.

In the next year or so it will be the treasury bond basis trade. Of recent the primary purchaser of US treasury bonds is not the tigers of the asian market like theyve traditionally been, but private equity rooted in the carribean. These private equity companies are shorting and longing (sic) trillions of dollars of treasury bonds on COVID policy banking tools like the repo to finance these trades on a few percentages of a percent. When or if private equity gets on a limb for this the money propping up the bubble industries will vanish.

This scenario of a burst isnt bailoutable without significant foreign investment, with private equity out no one domestic can really buy the bonds to finance the bailout, and if no one is buying treasury bonds because oops the federal government is already on the hook for trillions of bailout dollars already, what props up the system?

I think the revolutionary terror of the French was in an altogether different mind and material set than the Chinese. French nobility was extremely entrenched and had a lot of inertia to continuing or reassuming power, an almost totally uninterrupted power for a millennium. Compared to the Chinese where they were dominated by foreign powers, where the authority of their royal and noble families where concentrated in a rump state of bureaucrats and repressed liberals, for a century they languished in humiliation and want. The multiple millennia of concentrated and cyclical rule of Chinese emperors was disrupted that there was no inertia to really bring it back. Even the kuomintang would likely only retain the child emperor like a figurehead of Japanese nature.

Which can also lead you back to the Russian revolution, what place would the Romanov children have? You would have to hide their identities from everyone, the whites where desperate for some central power to harken to, and its one of the main reasons why their project failed in my opinion.

where do you draw the line?

Its amazing how every time this reasonable question has been asked, the reign of terror, the US civil war, and WW2 the eventual lines we did draw were totally wrong by about 4 orders of magnitude, both in scale and relation to the crime. For the reign of terror, should the revolutionaries have not killed every royal and noble family, every man woman and child? In the civil war, not just the confederate generals and officers but the plantation owners and politicians also suffer some fate than the removal of their vote? And finally the nazis, 10 nazis were held to account in nuremburg, though many more are popularly imagined to have faced judgement in the field, while so many more, just like the civil war, went on to continue living prestigious lives. Only one revolution seems to have ever answered this question correctly.

anyways marx said it best “We have no compassion and we ask no compassion from you. When our turn comes, we shall not make excuses for the terror.”

Schnappi Scary Skeleton

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3ynj6w2tII

AGGA - slow burn but very funny by the end

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-G5FdQrfwLw

incredibly fatal form of cancer that manifests from a long career at the SA factory (fox news)

The democrats arnt really liberal at this point, that peaked under obama. Now it seems as the republicans have moved more and more into fascism, the democrats are chasing the trickle of conservatives that arnt pushing fully to fascism and as such are mostly doing all the legwork of a “functional” conservative party like Biden did. And he ran and won on a message of arch-conservatism, that nothing would fundamentally change.

this has a really rough but good cadence of a poem, if you dont mind.

You orphaned our children

You followed their orders

You kidnapped us

You got your college degree

You point your guns at us

You got PTSD

You tortured us

Thank you for your service

I literally think we have 6 months post market correction, which i think is another year or two out. We’re definitely cancelling the next presidential election though, or very blatantly rigging it.

It is very funny for me to imagine him just reciting in perfect chinese the little red book during a commercial

doubt she was ever active enough to qualify for it. besides she makes enough on patreon to never have to worry about stuff like that

I see a lot of comparisons to Korea, but another major factor for their continued existence isnt the nukes, like Cuba they just arnt that important of a market or resource hub to pilfer. Both Iraq and Venezuela have a lot more people and a lot more resources to steal away. Iran -> Columbia -> Mexico are likely to be the next on the chopping block and all of which do not stand a chance without another major world power intervening in their stake. We’re back in the multipolar world and as such the peripheral governments have to be more subservient than they ever were before when the US was really the only player. Of course, Russia is too busy in Ukraine and China will not invest in a foreign policy of opposing US hegemony.

I fully expect shit like this to be thrown into a trash can and ignored, my ban is set to expire and I’ve already changed my name, but they werent even forthcoming with what exactly caused the ban which is what I asked for clarification for. I do want my god damn treats that I can actually play with friends.

I’ve only heard it used in the context I’ve used it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYjlgnUBgHw

Been digging this one recently

I’m aware of a lot of the really weird market behaviors right now, all the evidence is saying that the bubble could pop at any moment, that any jitter too severe will send it tumbling down

But the VIBES are telling me its going to last a while, I remember the weird market volatility from 2018 to 2020 and how the dow lost 10% one day but it was just fine. Nobody seemed to want a market panic. So there just wasnt one, and then COVID happened.

As someone else pointed out, you could say it, just not online.

I noticed this especially myself, its a reflection of covid with normies, I even heard a few f slurs and got it directed twice at myself (once hatefully, another playfully), and the r word was never polite but now I hear young people using it. Gay as a pejorative also made a comeback simultaneously

brace never stopped saying it, if you go to a live show of theirs brace consistently goes off the rails