𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚒𝚛𝚖𝚊𝚗 𝙼𝚎𝚘𝚠

  • 2 Posts
Joined 10 months ago
Cake day: August 16th, 2023


  • US intelligence estimates between 100-300 deaths.

    It’s also still unclear what caused the explosion. Numerous theories have been put forth but the evidence for nearly all of them was eventually disproven. For example, the missiles fired by Hamas alleged to be a dud were shown to be inconsistent with the timing of the explosion. These rockets didn’t show any misfiring in the video footage we have of the event.

    Similarly, the crater at the site is inconsistent with Israeli munitions. There’s the possibility of an iron dome interception gone wrong, but that too is unlikely.

    One theory I didn’t see discussed much was the idea that it was debris or shrapnel that was launched from the impact zone of nearby Israeli airstrikes. Israel was bombing targets very close to the hospital (as can be seen on the video) and timing-wise it matches better than most other theories. Debris gets launched from a nearby airstrike, lands in the parking lot and ignites several gas tanks there, causing the fireball on the video. This would also explain the lack of a matching missile on the video evidence.

    But that too remains without much supporting evidence. It’s likely that we’ll never find the exact cause.

  • Here’s my hot take: people aren’t switching to far right parties all that much. In a moderately healthy democracy, up to 30% of voters are often protest voters. They are unsatisfied with the current state of affairs and vote for whoever promises the largest upset of the status quo that they could see as potentially benefitting them.

    Often the media then likes to massively overinflate their popularity, artificially enhancing their electoral success. But it’s also often short-lived. If you look at Dutch elections, you’ll find that a group of voters went for LPF, then PVV, then FvD and then PVV again. Each time it’s broadly talked about as the “rise of X party” but almost every time nothing truly materializes.

    In the US you see a hardcore group of approx. 30% of voters vote for Trump religiously. Then there’s a smaller group of moderate Republicans that dislike the Democrats enough to end up voting for Trump too. They don’t like Trump but he’s “ok enough, and better than Obama/Clinton/Biden/Sanders etc…”.

    In France, Le Pen got around 30% of the vote. She didn’t perform dissimilarly to the last presidential election results, it was more noticeable that the other parties got much smaller than they were. But whether or not Le Pen can actually take the crown remains to be seen.

  • Imagine coming home to find your family was burnt to a crisp and your house and belongings torched by a foreign nation’s military.

    Do you expect this person to shrug it off and say “ah just collateral damage” or do you become vulnerable to propaganda from a group that says “I told you so, they’re evil and must be destroyed”?

    When we watched Luke Skywalker take up arms and join an armed rebellion against the evil empire after they murdered his family, we all cheered. But when the perpetrator doesn’t look like a comicbook villain, things are suddenly less clear.

    Point it, Hamas can’t be defeated like this. Every bombing of a civilian home creates more Hamas terrorists. When left no choice, people will choose violence. And to them it seems clear that Israel gives them no choice. From the safety of our homes we can see that Hamas is not worthy of any praise and that their actions are deeply reprehensible. But they live amongst the rubble caused by Israeli bombs; they won’t see it that way.

    This is a violent path that can only lead to genocide, which must be prevented. If we truly want there to be peace, both sides must concede things. Otherwise Hamas or its successor will just come back.