Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem

asteriskmag.com

Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem

asteriskmag.com

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forecastingEnglish · 10 months ago

Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem—Asterisk

asteriskmag.com

Weeks after it was clear that Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, you could still make pennies on the dollar betting Joe Biden would win. Why doesn’t smart money drive out dumb money in election markets?

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Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

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