• TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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    9 months ago

    What if its exponential growth?

    Then we should expect that in ~35 years, 200% of users will be using desktop linux.

    • ColeSloth
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      9 months ago

      The math chec…wait, no. That math doesn’t check out at all.

      • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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        9 months ago

        Ok, fine, I’ll do the actual curve fitting instead of just estimating.

        Eyeballing it, were saying 1% in 2013, 2% in 2021, 3% in 2023?

        Gives us a fit of…

        0.873 * exp(0.118 * x)

        So…

        Correct the equation and solve for x

        x_target = np.log(200 / a) / b

        Calculate the actual year

        year_target = 2013 + x_target

        print(year_target)

        In ~2058 everyone will be using two linux desktops at once.

        • ColeSloth
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          9 months ago

          If you don’t think of the increase in speed of new users as continuing to increase exponentially.