- Syrian opposition fighters say they are entering the capital, Damascus, after seizing control of the city of Homs.
- The developments mark the biggest challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s rule since Syria’s civil war began in 2011. Earlier, the Syrian army dismissed claims that al-Assad has left the country.
- The commander of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, says the government’s collapse is near and promises to protect people in areas the group controls.
- Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Russia issue a joint statement saying the crisis is a “dangerous development” and calling for a political solution.
How do the developments in Syria impact the Middle East?
If indeed Damascus has fallen and if indeed this is the end of al-Assad’s rule, this is a major blow for his ally Iran in the region.
In the past few years, the region has transformed.
We’ve seen the growing power and influence of Iran spread across the region, whether it was in Iraq, in Syria, and in Lebanon as well. They had local allies in these countries and the balance of power was in Iran’s favour.
It’s not just Syria, it’s in Lebanon, too.
Hezbollah, an ally of Iran, has been severely weakened, with its military capabilities degraded in the Israeli bombing campaign that lasted for weeks. The Israelis targeted their military infrastructure [and] their fighters; they destroyed areas where their supporters live, making it very difficult for the group to pick up the pieces. A ceasefire deal is in effect in Lebanon, but in that deal, Hezbollah, in one way or the other, is being told to disarm.
The Israeli military wants to ensure that Hezbollah is unable to re-arm, and in recent days, we’ve seen an intense bombing campaign by the Israelis, not just in Lebanon, but in Syria as well – because the Israeli military does not want Iran to militarily entrench itself in Syria. So this shift in the balance of power – if indeed al-Assad’s rule is now over – is a major blow to Iran but it’s too early to say what comes next for Syria.
Where is President al-Assad?
The Reuters news agency is reporting that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad boarded a plane and left to an unknown destination.
It cited two unnamed senior army officers familiar with the incident.
Earlier on Saturday, the government denied reports that al-Assad had fled Damascus. The state news agency said he remained in Damascus and was carrying out his work from the capital.
The president’s exact whereabouts are unknown, however, and he has reportedly not been seen for days.
Syrian opposition declares ‘start of new era’
The Syrian armed opposition says the end of al-Assad’s rule marks a new chapter in Syria’s history.
“After 50 years of oppression under Baathist rule and 13 years of criminality, tyranny and displacement, and after a long struggle, confronting all sorts of occupation forces, we declare today, December 8, 2024, the end of that dark era and the start of a new era for Syria,” the rebels said in a statement.
Syrian PM extends ‘hand to the opposition’
Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali says he does not plan on leaving his home and that he wants to ensure that public institutions continue to function.
“I urge all to think rationally and to think about the country,” al-Jalali said.
“We extend our hand to the opposition who have extended their hand and asserted that they will not harm anyone who belongs to this country.”
He also called on citizens to protect public property.
Al-Julani says Syria’s public institutions will remain under ex-PM
The HTS chief says all opposition forces in Damascus are prohibited from taking over public institutions, “which will remain under the supervision of the former prime minister until it is handed over officially”.
“Celebratory gunfire is also prohibited,” al-Julani added in a statement.
The Syrian opposition leader has been signing his statements with his legal name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in an apparent effort to distance himself from his past ties to al-Qaeda.
Al-Assad’s prime minister said earlier that he will remain in Damascus to oversee state institutions.
Something’s definitely happened. The Syrian army is definitely capable of defeating HTS in a stand up fight. A fix was in, probably before it started but possibly as late as the advance on Homs.
Yhea, all the generals suddenly surrendered. Assad government denied Iranian help. The Russians have been leaving their naval base for a week. So they seem to have been in on it. Deep ties between Russia and Israel. And Assad trusted them too much.
Conspiracy-brain time: The west told Russia they’d literally end the world with a direct war against them in Ukraine BUT offered if they let them win in Syria and throw Assad to the wolves they’d let Russia win in Ukraine without getting directly involved by pouring troops over. Russia took this, Syrian military found out or was told, said fuck that. Iranians found out too little too late, tried to put on a brave face and dissuade the extremists with that but couldn’t move near quickly enough and as a result their army vanished over the border into Iraq and Assad dipped. Of course Putin would be a fool to take such a deal if it existed given the west’s constant back-stabbing even written and signed agreements but he kind of seems like he might be exactly that kind of Charlie Brown fool to the west’s Lucy.
It’s too early to tell but it certainly seems suspicious.
Fighting is as much about morale as it is about numbers and equipment. Morale was low and sunk lower after the anti-Assad militants had big successes, things snow balled from there.
All the allies who helped Syria last time are stretched thin by Israel (Iran, Hezbollah), have bigger concerns (Russia), or otherwise ‘saw the writing on the wall’ given the situation with Syria’s other allies (Iraqi militias).
For Israel’s part, they’ve bombed key targets in Syria during the last year.
We live in a dark timeline. The resistance Axis wasn’t as strong as we thought and the Israel has proven more ruthless (and uncle Sam has an endless willingness to arm them). It’s not over though. It took decades for the Vietnamese to win against the imperialists.
HTS isn’t a roaming group of bandits. They have government offices, modern arms, command and control, and a fleet of drones for recon and anti armour duties.
Afghanistan’s army or Iraq’s army shouldn’t have folded to Al Qaeda/ISIS the way they did either, when even a better equipped force is going to struggle against enough well-armed, highly motivated individuals.
IMO what happened here is that the Syrian army has haemorrhaged popular support, weaponry, funding for YEARS especially since the Astana ceasefire. When Jolani (who had been receiving billions in foreign funds and building alliances and preparing for this assault) launched the attack, the first defences were quickly and resolutely overwhelmed.
After that first day of fighting (which even heavy Russian air power couldn’t fix), the commanders, generals, and int’l advisers knew this was going to be a fucking bloodbath that was never going to go in their favour and simply retreated at every turn in the hopes that Jolani’s forces would give up on their own.
Why fight a war when you know you’ve not got the political, economic, or military will to win?