Okay, but how do we avoid these situations? Let’s say we’re in this big alliance, and Kazakhstan becomes a big trading partner in an effort to rid itself of corruption and Russian influence.
Russia keeps trying to influence politics in Kazakhstan, more and more overtly, and when the Kazakhs elect a government who are fully committed to join our alliance, Russia invades.
Do we (the EU) defend Kazakhstan, which would be a proxy war in your definition, as without us they have no chance of even staying independent so the power imbalance couldn’t be greater?
This is not a hyothetical, but a close parallel of what’s happening in Ukraine by the way.
Such an alliance would not be lead by the EU. If it would lead to half of Africa, most of South America, most of West Asia and the EU to apply meaningful sanctions to Russia (e.g. not buying Russian oil through the backdoor and buying gas directly) that would be a strong deterrence w.o. sending military or weapons directly.
Okay, but how do we avoid these situations? Let’s say we’re in this big alliance, and Kazakhstan becomes a big trading partner in an effort to rid itself of corruption and Russian influence.
Russia keeps trying to influence politics in Kazakhstan, more and more overtly, and when the Kazakhs elect a government who are fully committed to join our alliance, Russia invades.
Do we (the EU) defend Kazakhstan, which would be a proxy war in your definition, as without us they have no chance of even staying independent so the power imbalance couldn’t be greater?
This is not a hyothetical, but a close parallel of what’s happening in Ukraine by the way.
Such an alliance would not be lead by the EU. If it would lead to half of Africa, most of South America, most of West Asia and the EU to apply meaningful sanctions to Russia (e.g. not buying Russian oil through the backdoor and buying gas directly) that would be a strong deterrence w.o. sending military or weapons directly.