Government expected to face close race with opposition led by the former prime minister and European Council president
  • skillissuerEnglish
    721·
    11 months ago

    good news:

    1. Looks like opposition gets safe majority, but not supermajority (neither 3/5 required for rejecting presidential veto and some other things or 2/3 required for changing constitution, finalizing some international agreements and some other things). Seems like PiS won’t be able to get majority in any way imaginable
    2. The pro-russian bitches party, konfederacja, polled around 9% but in exit polls they scored nice 6.2%. It would be even better (and funnier) if they got less than 5%, which is electoral threshold, but i don’t hold my breath for this one, they are already sorely disappointed after they got high on their own supply of propaganda where they found one poll with 13.4% support for them. They’re kinda like AfD, in terms of better known euro parties
    3. Electoral participation seems to be record high at almost 73%. This seems to contribute to lower PiS score
    4. Parallel to elections there was kinda “referendum” with weaselly worded broad and imprecise questions meant to stir shit re: immigrants. However participation in this one is less than 40% and so it’s not binding

    bad news:

    none. i’m drinking tonight

      • skillissuerEnglish
        4·
        11 months ago

        whoa whoa there, not so fast. first thing is forming the new government, then they’ll spend a year or so unfucking up what pis fucked up and uprooting their people from some seats in public institutions, and then it’s not a given that pis loses next election. but it’s an improvement

      • skillissuerEnglish
        2·
        11 months ago

        one thing that i’m gonna give to them: PiS kickstarted sorely needed modernization of polish army. turns out that’s the problem that responds pretty well to pouring money at it. who could have guessed?

        i hope this continues, even if limited in scale

    • sznowicki@lemmy.worldEnglish
      11·
      11 months ago

      Konfederacja is not like afd. PiS is like AfD. Konfederacja is like a child of FDP with NPD

      • skillissuerEnglish
        1·
        11 months ago

        Nah i wouldn’t say so. Konfa is more like AfD, PiS is more like CSU that got high on power and let intrusive thoughts win

        PiS - Fidesz is also reasonable comparison

    • skillissuerEnglish
      4·
      11 months ago

      schadenfreude delivery:

      These are PiS high command’s cheerful faces at yesterday’s post-election conference. Technically they won elections as they got largest share of votes, but they won’t be able to form majority government

      • skillissuerEnglish
        6·
        11 months ago

        looks like KO + TD + Lewica, so socdems, centrist liberals, centrist-ish christian democrats and agrarians, overall proeuropean

        • devfuuu@lemmy.worldEnglish
          2·
          11 months ago

          So, for an outsider, is this similar as current, more or less righ wing? Will Poland go back on some problems regarding lgbt…+ community or will persecution continue?

          • Hubi@feddit.deEnglish
            6·
            11 months ago

            PiS are right-wing populists. The proposed coalition would be liberal/center left. So way less radical right-wing stuff and more support for LGBT rights.

          • skillissuerEnglish
            6·
            11 months ago

            right wing populist are out of govt, better rule of law, judiciary, cooperation with EU, maybe even lgbt rights or abortion rights are in <- don’t hold your breath for the last one because that one new christian democrat party is part of that coalition and it’s unknown how will they behave

    • hh93@lemm.eeEnglish
      81·
      11 months ago

      As a German I feel it’s about time that “blame Germany” isn’t enough anymore to win an election in Poland.

    • skillissuerEnglish
      5·
      11 months ago

      ironically german minority didn’t seem to get MP this time, and they used to have two and later one every electoral cycle

      edit: based on exit polls, there’s still possibility that they do get it

      • variaatio@sopuli.xyzEnglish
        3·
        11 months ago

        Lot of people don’t seem to understand how multiparty parliamentary coalition democracies work.

        PiS was still biggest “oh dear”. Doesn’t matter, what matters is who can pass the confidence vote in Parliament and based on current estimates, PiS can’t.

        Oh since you seem to be Polish, who is likely to be put up as PM candidate by the new coalition to the Parliament to vote. I would assume Donald Tusk? Then again I know pretty much nothing of Polish politics.

        • skillissuerEnglish
          2·
          11 months ago

          coalition PM will be most likely Donald Tusk, but before this happens, it’s likely that president Duda will customarily ask PiS, as biggest party, to propose their own PM, who would be Morawiecki, which proposal will be rejected. they can delay new government appointment this way by up to a month

          this time there’s coalition but each of these parties is actually also a coalition in a trenchcoat, because this way they avoid 8% threshold and instead have 5% one, so instead of 3 parties in coalition there’s like 8 to 10 depending on how you count

  • lulztard@feddit.deEnglish
    192·
    11 months ago

    Good to see their facism to die down the slightest of bits. Hopefully it keeps that way, but considering that Tusk sees no problems with Hungary, I doubt it. Just less rabid facism. But we’ll see if he keeps going after women’s rights, minorities’ rights, Rule of Law and whatnot.

    • what_is_a_name@lemmy.worldEnglish
      9·
      11 months ago

      Like in other places. It’s all about disinformation and control of the media. Polish national TV has not mentioned any opposition leader by name in years - and you can imagine how they report on what is happening in the country and the World. It sways people. As we very well know from everywhere.

  • AllNewTypeFace@leminal.spaceEnglish
    12·
    11 months ago

    Also, the weirdo Putinists appear to be underperforming, at least in the exit polls. Hopefully this isn’t just the shy-Tory effect of extremist voters lying about whom they voted for.

    • skillissuerEnglish
      9·
      11 months ago

      two election cycles ago they overperformed in exit polls compared to actual results and got under electoral threshold (4.76%, 5% threshold, polls at like 5.5%). their cope was major laughingstock for a few months

      they are known for oversized online presence and habit of picking up highest results from shittiest polling company they can find and blasting it all over as internal propaganda. well they got high on their own supply and today many of party members, some of them who expected getting MP seat but not anymore, got big sad and didn’t participated in party meeting scheduled after conclusion of voting

    • skillissuerEnglish
      2·
      11 months ago

      if you’re looking for shy Tory effect, that works for PiS historically

  • illi@lemm.eeEnglish
    9·
    11 months ago

    Hope exit polls will reflect the truth and you guys don’t pull a Slovakia in these elections. My anxiety was never higher than the last week and would love to see good guys win for once.

      • PhlubbaDubba@lemm.eeEnglish
        4·
        11 months ago

        I’d say that’s not so likely given Slovakia’s actively claimed as “Rightful Magyar Clay” by Fidesz’ ultranationalists

      • hh93@lemm.eeEnglish
        31·
        11 months ago

        Wouldn’t be surprised if Italy also steps in to stop sanctions against antidemocratic nationalists and populists in the future