The Iowa caucuses have only correctly predicted the eventual Republican nominee in two of the last five election cycles, but forecasters are confident for other reasons

  • The chances are very high that Trump (89%) and Biden (91%) will be the presidential nominees.

  • Even if he receives a felony conviction before the Republican National Convention, Trump is highly likely to be the nominee (84%).

  • Assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, a felony conviction would still hinder Trump’s general election campaign, with his re-election chances dropping from 48% to 37%.