I mean there is a fucking valley between now and 2020.
First, he’s not the President. That gave him an overwhelming advantage in trying to steal that election. He held power.
Second, we’re looking out for it this time. And its not like Trump is actually off the hook for the last go at it either.
So yes, take heed and pay attention. But also, the difficulty of what he frankly almost go away with the first time (if he would have been able to get Pence to play ball; if the inssurectionists would have strung Pelosi up on a gallows, where might we be?). The difficulty of stealing an election while not in power and while we’re looking for it. OF course he’s going to claim it was stolen. But fuck him. We don’t have to regard his claims.
He is still holding power though. Look how he was able to block aid to Ukraine for 6 months. Or how he tanked the border bill that actually had everything Republicans were asking for.
He is not a president, but he still controls people in powerful positions.
Exactly, it’s not going to come from Trump himself. Trump will Truth “it was rigged” and kool aid drinkers around the country in positions of power will manufacture the proof, and go along with every step.
Yes, This is important to acknowledge. He also has an extremely complicit supreme court who are a bit over their handle bars and may suffer consequences if he isn’t elected. So yes.
However… If its clear, and I do think it will be, that he hasn’t won, he flips from being an asset to being a liability. As they say, if you are aiming for the King, don’t miss. They won’t have the ability to throw down smokebombs (read: misinformation, lawsuits, etc) in the way that they did around 2020.
What Trump offers is a path to power. If he can’t/ doesn’t win the election, his only offering is moot. And the bodies along the way are there to see (look at Pence, Giuliani, etc… Trump uses people and dumps them).
Its something we need to be 100% paying attention to. But its a far far more difficult lift this time around than last.
First, he’s not the President. That gave him an overwhelming advantage in trying to steal that election. He held power.
He isn’t, but a huge number of sympathetic judges that he appointed still are. As if an activist, conservative Supreme Court.
We need both the Presidency and majorities in Congress. All but one of the moral Republicans who sided with the election results last time have lost their primaries to pro-Trump candidates; there are none left in Congress to side with Democrats against Trump-backed activism.
he has cult members in multiple states and at the local level who are in charge of elections or ballot certification or somewhere in that process; and judges at all levels, some of whom have already ruled in his favor.
it is unlikely but still a non-zero chance that enough bullshit gets piled on the process in enough places that neither candidate gets the minimum 270 electoral college votes required when they’re officially counted and certified at the start of the next congressional session.
if that were to be the case, then congress votes to choose the president (house, each state gets one vote–dc gets no vote; 26 to win) and vice president (senate, 51 to win).
I mean its gotta be close for that to be relevant. I sure af hope its been sobering to BM how well Kamala has been doing post Biden. Trump is actually deeply unpopular and there was no reason for the Democrats to have ever not been leading in this election. Biden was a completely unforced error.
So I think its realistic and necessary for Kamala to have a convincing victory, and I think she’s on the road to demonstrate that.
The biggest difference is that right now, Trump is not the president. In the week before J6 when it was all shaping up, it was clear he was going to try to do everything to not leave power. He should have been arrested on January 7th. That all is what it is.
And if SCOTUS decides to make an unconstitutional ruling to overturn a result with a big safe margin, the dems have to be prepared for prosecuting for treason. After the Gore v Bush decision and the current everything, it’s perfectly plausible.
BM as in taking a shit? Seriously though, what does this mean?
Trump is actually deeply unpopular
How the hell do you figure? If he were that unpopular, wouldn’t he be trailing in the polls by over 20 points instead of by less than 5? The fact that it’s anywhere near a close race scares the hell out of me as I very much think it should.
Your comments here just don’t make sense to me. I feel like you’re acknowledging points made that nullify yours, but proceeding to defend your points anyhow, saying essentially “nah it’s fine since Trump isn’t president and will lose it’s all fine.”
Worth noting, though, Trump’s plan to steal the election is at a more local level than before. Focusing on election officials and people that certify results. I could see a scenario where a state is won by shenanigans.
Remembering the 2000 election that the Supreme Court stole from Al Gore, there were counties in Florida that were ordered to do recounts, but didn’t start the recount for weeks because they knew it would only benefit Gore. In the end, Gore lost because the recounts took too long and the partisan Supreme Court decided they had to stop.
Lesson here is that local officials can easily make an impact in the final results, and republicans have no ethics in the matter.
Yeah didn’t a few states just make it legal for officials to ignore election results? And the federal government doesn’t have oversight in how states run federal elections so… 2024 might even be worse than 2020.
Georgia (ya know, a typical battleground state) just made it legal for the voting board to refuse to certify elections indefinitely without any burden of proof of malicious activity. It’s also 3-2 Republican on the voting board, so, I’m 100% sure it doesn’t matter if 100% of people vote for Harris, the Republicans will declare some kind of voting incongruety with absolutely no proof and refuse to certify the election. They’ve already refused to certify several elections in GA when it was illegal to do so and wouldn’t you know it, the Republicans in charge were never held accountable for it – instead they fucking legalized it.
This is the real threat to our democracy – it’s not an insurrection at the capital, it’s a bunch of loyalist fascist cronies being puppeteered by a madman hell bent on stealing the presidency.
I think I remember seeing something like this. States get to choose how they elect people, which is bonkers. If they choose to ignore their voters, that is considered feature, not a bug.
The main concern is if Trump convinces enough electoral vote officials and they refuse to certify results, we will be in unprecedented territory. Democrats have been known to take the knee in favor of remaining civil (see Bush vs Gore), so there is understandably a lot of uncertainty and why Harris needs to win by a HUGE margin
This. THIS THIS THIS. More people need to be aware of this, the only thing that can be done at this point is mass awareness that they’re going to attempt to steal the election via the certification process. If in 4 years we haven’t been able to root out these fascists from the positions of authority there is no way we will be able to do so by November.
Everyone MUST be clear that this is how Trump plans to steal the presidency – he has been greasing these wheels now for years and he has enough support that he absolutely can do it. It’s not some far-fetched scheme, the Republicans have literally started legislating to ensure this is fully legal in battleground states and to @Boddhisatva@lemmy.world’s point, succeeded already in GA.
Make sure literally EVERYONE you know knows that this is the plan. It’s already underway and they will succeed if we don’t turn election certification denial into the poison pill that project 2025 is.
This time all he might need is a couple of dodgy decisions in some swing states. “Oh my the Dems are cheating well the wonderful governor of state X can overturn the election results and the delegates can vote for who the think the people really want.”
Donald will double down on the only strategy he knows, and will chew his way through a series of increasingly brief campaign managers whilehe tunes out while he leans into personality attacks and conspiracy theories, galvanizing his MAGA core and alienating an increasing share of Republicans
He will continue to chase moderates towards Kamala, expanding into the right, eventually even to include a small handful of politically savvy MAGA types compelled to denounce him to save face
Election night is a drubbing in the popular vote with record turnout and a similar map to 2020 with maybe even one or two new blue states
Donald will trot out a litany of accusations of interference and refuse to concede, his base will further contract
MAGA protests will quickly turn violent and Donald’s refusal to denounce his few remaining supporters will pretty much sever MAGA from what’s left of Republicans
a few MAGA election officials delay certifying anywhere possible, exhausting all legal and some illegal means of avoiding certification
At least one or two of these delays will result in a standoff between county and state government or even state and federal
All of this likely set against a backdrop of sporadic but increasing violence and rioting by the remaining hardest of the hard core MAGA, with right wing militias playing a large role and even intervening on behalf of at least one of the aforementioned standoffs at one point or another
I’d be curious which of those elements you find to be the most far fetched. I know in their totality they sound like a crazed paranoid rant, but given our recent history, and the insane trajectory we are on, this doesn’t really seem like that big of a stretch to me.
I dont think any of this is unreasonable, but I honestly think if he would have done some of things last go round, it probably would have been a successful coup.
Democrats in particular, but also the entire intelligence state was caught completely flat footed to information that was widely available on OSINT or other very leaky data channels.
I can’t imagine they are as naive as they were four years ago? But then again.
Points one and two, I agree. Point three, we shall see but things seem possible again. Trump is deeply unpopular.
On MAGA and MAGA protests.
The energy simply isn’t there for Donald this time. This is a key feature 2020 had that the current climate doesn’t. White nationalism and BLM were going at it in the streets, and the energy of the Trump movement gave groups like patriot front, the 3%'rs, PB, etc a place to hide. If you are going to keep something like that going, you have to put points on the board. You need W’s and he lost big time in 2020. Its the nature of all movements that they wax and wane. I mean look how BLM collapsed after 2020. You need big groups to hide militants. That just is not going to happen this time. Its a different environment and Trump has a core group of supporters that will show up, but it will be nothing like we saw in 2020. This exposes the militant elements in greater relief.
Congress and capitol police won’t be fucking around this time and DC will be on lockdown. Every paper clip is going to get a high degree of scrutiny. A fake slate of electors isn’t going to make it through, and a state refusing to certify is going to get clapped. Of all of these, I think they are all reasonable, but this is the only one that gives me real pause. Our system is very diffuse and yeah, there are a lot of wackos. Its not that hard for one idiot to throw a wrench in the works.
Again though, the problem Trump has is that he’s not in power. SO what if something takes longer to figure out? Biden or Harris will still be in office at that time. Thats the real changemaker. A smoke bomb or confusion of results doesn’t work in Trumps favor they way it did in 2020.
If anything I’d say its time to get back on the intelligence channels and start reading the tape to keep an eye on things. I could see some militants disrupting some stuff here and there, but in general, the MAGA movement has fizzled. It doesn’t have bodies in the streets like it did in 2020, and Trump would need that for the above to be effective.
This all sounds reasonable, the only thing not mentioned is the risk of enough Trump-loyalist election officials refusing to certify the vote that neither party gets above 270 - throwing it to Congress where Trump wins.
The only defense against it that I’m aware of is to get the popular vote SO FAR in favor of Harris/Walz that Congress won’t be willing to risk their vote being so blatantly opposite and misrepresentative of the will of the people, lest it lead to reform they don’t want.
Yes, that’s what I’ve been saying too. People are still doing swing state math assuming 270 is enough, but Harris is going to need a sizeable margin in order to actually have a defense buffer against these election officials.
Likewise, a blue Texas wouldn’t guarantee the White House for Kamala since they would under no circumstances accept and certify the result. All it would guarantee is a constitutional crisis.
yep this is bang on. they have been election deniers and pro-revolution for 4 years. they have no faith in the US democratic system any more and will do anything to get power
These are all good points. We should also be vigilant, as you highlight, but especially because of the lower court appointees, board of election positions, and others that have been packed with bad faith actors preparing for this moment. It’s McConnell’s last hurrah.
It’s critical to never underestimate the enemy, and nobody has ever been more The Enemy in this century than Donald fucking Trump. Always remember that it’s not over until it’s over, fight till the last, go out and vote, and drag somebody else with you to vote too.
oh? sure, we still talk some shit, but he’s not going to see consequences. even the participants who broke in and stole information from congressghouls and set bombs in the capital with the explicit goal of overthrowing the government didn’t get as much prison time as a POC with a joint in alabama or a kid who threw a rock at a cop’s riot shield. seems like a pretty clear message.
I think the big issue here is the right wing news ecosystem and their viewers. They consume so much propaganda and believe it wholeheartedly. It’s almost like Trump isn’t the problem, the youtubers are…
The orange felon is doing felon things WITH fellow wealthy accomplices. Money can get a lot of shady/illegal shit done.
There is a reason countries used to line up seditionists before firing squads.
I mean there is a fucking valley between now and 2020.
First, he’s not the President. That gave him an overwhelming advantage in trying to steal that election. He held power.
Second, we’re looking out for it this time. And its not like Trump is actually off the hook for the last go at it either.
So yes, take heed and pay attention. But also, the difficulty of what he frankly almost go away with the first time (if he would have been able to get Pence to play ball; if the inssurectionists would have strung Pelosi up on a gallows, where might we be?). The difficulty of stealing an election while not in power and while we’re looking for it. OF course he’s going to claim it was stolen. But fuck him. We don’t have to regard his claims.
He is still holding power though. Look how he was able to block aid to Ukraine for 6 months. Or how he tanked the border bill that actually had everything Republicans were asking for.
He is not a president, but he still controls people in powerful positions.
Exactly, it’s not going to come from Trump himself. Trump will Truth “it was rigged” and kool aid drinkers around the country in positions of power will manufacture the proof, and go along with every step.
Yes, This is important to acknowledge. He also has an extremely complicit supreme court who are a bit over their handle bars and may suffer consequences if he isn’t elected. So yes.
However… If its clear, and I do think it will be, that he hasn’t won, he flips from being an asset to being a liability. As they say, if you are aiming for the King, don’t miss. They won’t have the ability to throw down smokebombs (read: misinformation, lawsuits, etc) in the way that they did around 2020.
What Trump offers is a path to power. If he can’t/ doesn’t win the election, his only offering is moot. And the bodies along the way are there to see (look at Pence, Giuliani, etc… Trump uses people and dumps them).
Its something we need to be 100% paying attention to. But its a far far more difficult lift this time around than last.
He isn’t, but a huge number of sympathetic judges that he appointed still are. As if an activist, conservative Supreme Court.
We need both the Presidency and majorities in Congress. All but one of the moral Republicans who sided with the election results last time have lost their primaries to pro-Trump candidates; there are none left in Congress to side with Democrats against Trump-backed activism.
he has cult members in multiple states and at the local level who are in charge of elections or ballot certification or somewhere in that process; and judges at all levels, some of whom have already ruled in his favor.
it is unlikely but still a non-zero chance that enough bullshit gets piled on the process in enough places that neither candidate gets the minimum 270 electoral college votes required when they’re officially counted and certified at the start of the next congressional session.
if that were to be the case, then congress votes to choose the president (house, each state gets one vote–dc gets no vote; 26 to win) and vice president (senate, 51 to win).
I mean its gotta be close for that to be relevant. I sure af hope its been sobering to BM how well Kamala has been doing post Biden. Trump is actually deeply unpopular and there was no reason for the Democrats to have ever not been leading in this election. Biden was a completely unforced error.
So I think its realistic and necessary for Kamala to have a convincing victory, and I think she’s on the road to demonstrate that.
The biggest difference is that right now, Trump is not the president. In the week before J6 when it was all shaping up, it was clear he was going to try to do everything to not leave power. He should have been arrested on January 7th. That all is what it is.
And if SCOTUS decides to make an unconstitutional ruling to overturn a result with a big safe margin, the dems have to be prepared for prosecuting for treason. After the Gore v Bush decision and the current everything, it’s perfectly plausible.
BM as in taking a shit? Seriously though, what does this mean?
How the hell do you figure? If he were that unpopular, wouldn’t he be trailing in the polls by over 20 points instead of by less than 5? The fact that it’s anywhere near a close race scares the hell out of me as I very much think it should.
Your comments here just don’t make sense to me. I feel like you’re acknowledging points made that nullify yours, but proceeding to defend your points anyhow, saying essentially “nah it’s fine since Trump isn’t president and will lose it’s all fine.”
Worth noting, though, Trump’s plan to steal the election is at a more local level than before. Focusing on election officials and people that certify results. I could see a scenario where a state is won by shenanigans.
Remembering the 2000 election that the Supreme Court stole from Al Gore, there were counties in Florida that were ordered to do recounts, but didn’t start the recount for weeks because they knew it would only benefit Gore. In the end, Gore lost because the recounts took too long and the partisan Supreme Court decided they had to stop.
Lesson here is that local officials can easily make an impact in the final results, and republicans have no ethics in the matter.
Yeah didn’t a few states just make it legal for officials to ignore election results? And the federal government doesn’t have oversight in how states run federal elections so… 2024 might even be worse than 2020.
Georgia (ya know, a typical battleground state) just made it legal for the voting board to refuse to certify elections indefinitely without any burden of proof of malicious activity. It’s also 3-2 Republican on the voting board, so, I’m 100% sure it doesn’t matter if 100% of people vote for Harris, the Republicans will declare some kind of voting incongruety with absolutely no proof and refuse to certify the election. They’ve already refused to certify several elections in GA when it was illegal to do so and wouldn’t you know it, the Republicans in charge were never held accountable for it – instead they fucking legalized it.
This is the real threat to our democracy – it’s not an insurrection at the capital, it’s a bunch of loyalist fascist cronies being puppeteered by a madman hell bent on stealing the presidency.
I think I remember seeing something like this. States get to choose how they elect people, which is bonkers. If they choose to ignore their voters, that is considered feature, not a bug.
The main concern is if Trump convinces enough electoral vote officials and they refuse to certify results, we will be in unprecedented territory. Democrats have been known to take the knee in favor of remaining civil (see Bush vs Gore), so there is understandably a lot of uncertainty and why Harris needs to win by a HUGE margin
He’s already convinced enough. Rolling Stone identified at least 70 election officials around the country that are 2020 election deniers. In addition, 3 of the 5 member Georgia Board of Elections are election denying Trump supporters that are already changing rules to allow and support challenges this November. Trump called out all three by name at a rally there and one was even in the front row and briefly spoke at the rally.
This. THIS THIS THIS. More people need to be aware of this, the only thing that can be done at this point is mass awareness that they’re going to attempt to steal the election via the certification process. If in 4 years we haven’t been able to root out these fascists from the positions of authority there is no way we will be able to do so by November.
Everyone MUST be clear that this is how Trump plans to steal the presidency – he has been greasing these wheels now for years and he has enough support that he absolutely can do it. It’s not some far-fetched scheme, the Republicans have literally started legislating to ensure this is fully legal in battleground states and to @Boddhisatva@lemmy.world’s point, succeeded already in GA.
Make sure literally EVERYONE you know knows that this is the plan. It’s already underway and they will succeed if we don’t turn election certification denial into the poison pill that project 2025 is.
This time all he might need is a couple of dodgy decisions in some swing states. “Oh my the Dems are cheating well the wonderful governor of state X can overturn the election results and the delegates can vote for who the think the people really want.”
What I expect to happen is this:
Donald will double down on the only strategy he knows, and will chew his way through a series of increasingly brief campaign managers whilehe tunes out while he leans into personality attacks and conspiracy theories, galvanizing his MAGA core and alienating an increasing share of Republicans
He will continue to chase moderates towards Kamala, expanding into the right, eventually even to include a small handful of politically savvy MAGA types compelled to denounce him to save face
Election night is a drubbing in the popular vote with record turnout and a similar map to 2020 with maybe even one or two new blue states
Donald will trot out a litany of accusations of interference and refuse to concede, his base will further contract
MAGA protests will quickly turn violent and Donald’s refusal to denounce his few remaining supporters will pretty much sever MAGA from what’s left of Republicans
a few MAGA election officials delay certifying anywhere possible, exhausting all legal and some illegal means of avoiding certification
At least one or two of these delays will result in a standoff between county and state government or even state and federal
All of this likely set against a backdrop of sporadic but increasing violence and rioting by the remaining hardest of the hard core MAGA, with right wing militias playing a large role and even intervening on behalf of at least one of the aforementioned standoffs at one point or another
I’d be curious which of those elements you find to be the most far fetched. I know in their totality they sound like a crazed paranoid rant, but given our recent history, and the insane trajectory we are on, this doesn’t really seem like that big of a stretch to me.
I dont think any of this is unreasonable, but I honestly think if he would have done some of things last go round, it probably would have been a successful coup.
Democrats in particular, but also the entire intelligence state was caught completely flat footed to information that was widely available on OSINT or other very leaky data channels.
I can’t imagine they are as naive as they were four years ago? But then again.
Points one and two, I agree. Point three, we shall see but things seem possible again. Trump is deeply unpopular.
On MAGA and MAGA protests.
The energy simply isn’t there for Donald this time. This is a key feature 2020 had that the current climate doesn’t. White nationalism and BLM were going at it in the streets, and the energy of the Trump movement gave groups like patriot front, the 3%'rs, PB, etc a place to hide. If you are going to keep something like that going, you have to put points on the board. You need W’s and he lost big time in 2020. Its the nature of all movements that they wax and wane. I mean look how BLM collapsed after 2020. You need big groups to hide militants. That just is not going to happen this time. Its a different environment and Trump has a core group of supporters that will show up, but it will be nothing like we saw in 2020. This exposes the militant elements in greater relief.
Congress and capitol police won’t be fucking around this time and DC will be on lockdown. Every paper clip is going to get a high degree of scrutiny. A fake slate of electors isn’t going to make it through, and a state refusing to certify is going to get clapped. Of all of these, I think they are all reasonable, but this is the only one that gives me real pause. Our system is very diffuse and yeah, there are a lot of wackos. Its not that hard for one idiot to throw a wrench in the works.
Again though, the problem Trump has is that he’s not in power. SO what if something takes longer to figure out? Biden or Harris will still be in office at that time. Thats the real changemaker. A smoke bomb or confusion of results doesn’t work in Trumps favor they way it did in 2020.
If anything I’d say its time to get back on the intelligence channels and start reading the tape to keep an eye on things. I could see some militants disrupting some stuff here and there, but in general, the MAGA movement has fizzled. It doesn’t have bodies in the streets like it did in 2020, and Trump would need that for the above to be effective.
This all sounds reasonable, the only thing not mentioned is the risk of enough Trump-loyalist election officials refusing to certify the vote that neither party gets above 270 - throwing it to Congress where Trump wins.
This is definitely a play they’re considering.
The only defense against it that I’m aware of is to get the popular vote SO FAR in favor of Harris/Walz that Congress won’t be willing to risk their vote being so blatantly opposite and misrepresentative of the will of the people, lest it lead to reform they don’t want.
Yes, that’s what I’ve been saying too. People are still doing swing state math assuming 270 is enough, but Harris is going to need a sizeable margin in order to actually have a defense buffer against these election officials.
Likewise, a blue Texas wouldn’t guarantee the White House for Kamala since they would under no circumstances accept and certify the result. All it would guarantee is a constitutional crisis.
yep this is bang on. they have been election deniers and pro-revolution for 4 years. they have no faith in the US democratic system any more and will do anything to get power
These are all good points. We should also be vigilant, as you highlight, but especially because of the lower court appointees, board of election positions, and others that have been packed with bad faith actors preparing for this moment. It’s McConnell’s last hurrah.
It’s critical to never underestimate the enemy, and nobody has ever been more The Enemy in this century than Donald fucking Trump. Always remember that it’s not over until it’s over, fight till the last, go out and vote, and drag somebody else with you to vote too.
*Guy from al queda that I comically can’t remember his name weeps in the corner*
the seven foot tall hentai superfan, or…???
Osama Bin Laden!
Yo mama bin laden with adipose tissue.
Sorry, thought of that one years ago and my opportunity to use it never came, so I’m using it here. You can be mad at me if you want to. :p
oh? sure, we still talk some shit, but he’s not going to see consequences. even the participants who broke in and stole information from congressghouls and set bombs in the capital with the explicit goal of overthrowing the government didn’t get as much prison time as a POC with a joint in alabama or a kid who threw a rock at a cop’s riot shield. seems like a pretty clear message.
The only just consequences are the gallows. The shit hes done is straight up treason.
also, made treason uncool. worse IMO. also all the atrocities he did or tried to do, but nobody cares about those.
I think the big issue here is the right wing news ecosystem and their viewers. They consume so much propaganda and believe it wholeheartedly. It’s almost like Trump isn’t the problem, the youtubers are…
The orange felon is doing felon things WITH fellow wealthy accomplices. Money can get a lot of shady/illegal shit done.
There is a reason countries used to line up seditionists before firing squads.